NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	96		Excitement	8.6 [166]		MVP	James Posey (DEN): +8.2%
Dallas Mavericks	98		Comeback	2.2 [553]		LVP	Bryant Stith (DEN): -33.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	6	81%	0.13	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Nick Van Exel	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.07	0.11	-0.02	21	39%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
George McCloud	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	64%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Popeye Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.01	10	67%	0.10	2	-0.12	10	60%	-0.06
Raef LaFrentz	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	-0.00	6	17%	-0.05	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.12,-0.19	-0.00	-0.19	-0.00	20	54%	-0.08	3	-0.12	1	0%	-0.02
Bryant Stith	-0.34	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.34	-0.09	-0.25	-0.01	13	32%	-0.30	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	19	54%	0.13	2	-0.11	3	67%	-0.02
Dennis Rodman	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	8	47%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Greg Buckner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.05
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	14	43%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.14	-0.00	15	43%	-0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.7	26.2	17.4	22.5	2.5	34.5	129.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +25.3%

DAL +14.8%

DEN -13.6%

DAL +23.6%

DEN -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	15.2	15.1	15.2	100.0	104.3	101.7
season	14.8	14.8		101.5	104.2
opponent	14.8	15.0		104.6	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.7	15.5	14.6	15.1	15.2
DAL	14.9	14.5	14.2	16.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Popeye Jones	6	5	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-2	2	13.2	15.4	-2.21	17.2	15.0	2.24
Keon Clark	62	59	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.24	7	-9	16	13.8	17.9	-4.05	15.6	14.1	1.53
George McCloud	51	50	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.30	4	-6	10	14.4	16.2	-1.81	16.3	13.6	2.70
Raef LaFrentz	34	34	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	2	-6	17.0	14.3	2.77	13.7	15.8	-2.10
Chris Gatling	34	34	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	3	-8	15.2	15.3	-0.05	16.3	14.4	1.91
Antonio McDyess	73	72	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.46	4	-6	10	15.5	14.6	0.89	14.9	15.7	-0.85
Bryant Stith	82	81	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.37	0	-2	2	15.3	14.9	0.36	14.6	17.8	-3.13
James Posey	54	52	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.19	-10	8	-18	16.0	14.3	1.74	14.3	16.0	-1.67
Nick Van Exel	84	83	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.42	-6	4	-10	15.5	13.2	2.27	14.9	16.5	-1.56

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	53	52	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.72	7	-5	12	15.1	15.0	0.09	15.7	14.7	0.95
Dirk Nowitzki	77	76	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.27	7	-5	12	14.8	16.4	-1.56	15.9	12.8	3.08
Cedric Ceballos	58	60	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.32	4	-2	6	15.8	14.0	1.79	15.1	15.4	-0.33
Dennis Rodman	67	68	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.14	9	-7	16	15.1	15.1	-0.05	15.6	14.4	1.25
Sean Rooks	2	3	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	2	-2	18.5	15.0	3.50	7.7	15.5	-7.82
Michael Finley	74	77	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.22	-10	12	-22	15.0	15.4	-0.41	14.6	17.7	-3.11
Hubert Davis	11	11	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.02	-6	8	-14	16.5	14.9	1.56	14.0	15.4	-1.40
Steve Nash	14	15	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.03	-7	9	-16	17.3	14.7	2.60	13.6	15.5	-1.94
Shawn Bradley	41	44	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	-0.09	-4	6	-10	14.6	15.4	-0.82	14.8	15.6	-0.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.91,0.75,0.72,0.45,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 92, GSW 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.74,0.8,0.93,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.91,1	92.0%
BOS 77, MIL 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.93,0.79,0.77,0.95,1	91.8%
DAL 66, UTA 68	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.71,0.82,0.81,0.77,0.55,0.57,1	91.8%