NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	107		Excitement	2.6 [1192]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): +11.9%
Toronto Raptors	85		Comeback	1.1 [495]		LVP	Kevin Willis (TOR): -7.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.00	-0.01	17	70%	0.14	2	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Malik Sealy	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	14	64%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	11	62%	0.05	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	12	69%	0.05	4	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	57%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Bobby Jackson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	10	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.11	0.00	-0.10	9	35%	0.02	3	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
William Avery	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.00	18	57%	0.06	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Haywoode Workman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.03	2	75%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	37%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	5	30%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	14	54%	0.01	2	-0.02	9	89%	0.00
John Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	8	28%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0.03	5	79%	0.03	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	3	50%	-0.02	4	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	1.7	30.0	16.4	26.6	2.4	30.5	129.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +28.4%

MIN +0.8%

MIN +10.2%

MIN +9.1%

MIN +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	TOR	NBA	MIN	TOR	NBA
this game	16.7	15.5	15.2	118.9	95.5	101.7
season	15.1	15.5		103.5	101.8
opponent	14.9	15.7		102.1	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.6	17.0	15.8	19.3	16.7
TOR	16.7	14.3	18.5	12.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	72	70	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.26	25	-3	28	16.1	19.1	-2.96	16.1	13.3	2.76
Wally Szczerbiak	57	54	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.05	14	8	6	17.4	15.4	2.04	15.7	15.1	0.61
Malik Sealy	80	81	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.17	21	1	20	16.4	18.6	-2.15	15.9	11.6	4.24
Terrell Brandon	68	68	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.26	21	1	20	16.3	18.0	-1.74	15.3	16.0	-0.68
Joe Smith	62	63	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.11	15	7	8	16.3	17.6	-1.33	15.0	16.5	-1.49
Rasho Nesterovic	24	24	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.06	8	14	-6	16.5	16.8	-0.26	16.9	15.0	1.96
William Avery	22	21	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	21	-20	18.0	16.3	1.74	16.0	15.3	0.68
Anthony Peeler	48	48	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.05	5	17	-12	16.7	16.6	0.09	14.4	16.7	-2.27
Dean Garrett	11	11	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	22	-22	23.0	15.8	7.19	15.5	15.5	-0.03
Bobby Jackson	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	22	-22	13.0	16.8	-3.82	8.0	15.7	-7.74
Tom Hammonds	3	2	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	22	-22	13.0	16.8	-3.82	6.0	15.7	-9.70

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Thomas	26	26	0.01	-0.52	0.53	-0.22	8	-30	38	13.0	16.5	-3.51	20.2	15.2	4.98
Alvin Williams	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-20	18	10.8	15.8	-4.99	16.3	16.7	-0.38
Dee Brown	17	17	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.03	-1	-21	20	12.7	16.1	-3.43	18.2	16.3	1.91
Haywoode Workman	24	26	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.15	5	-27	32	13.0	16.4	-3.34	18.4	16.0	2.44
Dell Curry	26	23	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.16	-10	-12	2	15.7	15.4	0.30	14.5	17.4	-2.97
Kevin Willis	20	21	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.06	-7	-15	8	17.1	15.0	2.15	16.2	16.8	-0.59
Doug Christie	39	39	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.04	-6	-16	10	15.5	15.5	-0.04	17.1	16.4	0.68
Muggsy Bogues	33	34	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.16	-15	-7	-8	16.9	14.6	2.31	15.5	17.4	-1.96
Antonio Davis	52	52	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.24	-20	-2	-18	16.2	14.5	1.61	15.4	18.5	-3.09
Tracy McGrady	73	76	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.11	-17	-5	-12	15.5	15.2	0.36	17.4	13.1	4.28
Vince Carter	71	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.08	-19	-3	-16	15.6	14.8	0.81	16.9	15.7	1.21
Charles Oakley	58	58	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.25	-26	4	-30	16.5	13.5	3.02	15.4	19.0	-3.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 103, HOU 76	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%
TOR 122, CHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.24,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.16,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
LAL 107, DEN 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%