NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	93		Excitement	9.0 [114]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +25.2%
Indiana Pacers	94		Comeback	20.9 [81]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -24.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0.24,0.25	0.08	0.17	-0.00	13	74%	0.52	3	-0.27	5	60%	-0.01
Damon Jones	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Rodman	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.07	0.00	5	20%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	7	37%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Steve Nash	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	11	32%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	17	39%	-0.10	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	-0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.25	-0.03	-0.23	-0.01	22	50%	-0.15	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.11,0.01,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.12	0.00	9	65%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.11,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.06	0.00	21	62%	0.20	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	6	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02	0.02	-0.06	0.08	0.00	12	48%	0.09	2	-0.07	7	100%	0.15
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.06
Dale Davis	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.10	-0.09	0.02	9	76%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Austin Croshere	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.15	-0.04	-0.02	9	22%	-0.06	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.7	25.7	16.0	23.1	2.5	38.4	131.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL -7.3%

IND +50.5%

DAL -25.3%

IND +26.6%

IND +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	IND	NBA	DAL	IND	NBA
this game	16.5	13.9	15.2	98.9	97.9	101.7
season	14.8	15.4		104.2	106.5
opponent	15.1	14.8		101.8	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.0	13.8	18.3	19.4	16.5
IND	14.4	13.9	11.7	15.8	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cedric Ceballos	55	56	0.42	-0.92	1.34	-0.02	15	-16	31	16.0	17.1	-1.04	14.4	13.2	1.16
Damon Jones	0	1	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.00	2	-3	5	0.0	16.5	-16.47	0.0	14.0	-14.02
Sean Rooks	19	19	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-2	3	16.5	16.5	0.07	12.8	14.1	-1.29
Greg Buckner	38	37	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.19	6	-7	13	15.5	17.1	-1.67	13.9	13.9	-0.02
Dennis Rodman	67	65	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.08	-8	7	-15	16.6	16.1	0.55	14.4	12.7	1.72
Dirk Nowitzki	76	77	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	0	-1	16.6	15.8	0.79	14.3	12.3	2.01
Michael Finley	76	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.45	0	-1	1	16.4	16.8	-0.45	14.1	12.9	1.21
Hubert Davis	30	32	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.59	3	-4	7	16.7	16.4	0.34	13.4	14.1	-0.70
Erick Strickland	55	56	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.42	-13	12	-25	16.7	16.1	0.58	13.6	14.3	-0.73
Steve Nash	54	58	-0.84	0.34	-1.19	-0.55	-10	9	-19	16.9	15.8	1.08	13.1	15.1	-1.95

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Best	47	45	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.57	5	-4	9	14.1	13.7	0.45	17.9	15.2	2.73
Derrick McKey	54	51	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.52	5	-4	9	13.7	14.1	-0.48	17.7	15.0	2.79
Jalen Rose	90	88	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.42	7	-6	13	13.9	14.2	-0.31	16.5	15.7	0.86
Reggie Miller	84	82	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.49	-3	4	-7	13.9	13.8	0.05	16.7	15.2	1.49
Sam Perkins	34	34	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.16	1	0	1	14.7	13.4	1.33	17.8	15.7	2.03
Dale Davis	58	59	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.07	0	1	-1	14.1	13.5	0.66	15.8	17.5	-1.71
Austin Croshere	44	44	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.06	-2	3	-5	14.5	13.4	1.07	15.0	17.8	-2.80
Mark Jackson	49	49	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.10	-4	5	-9	13.7	14.1	-0.45	15.2	17.9	-2.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.31,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.32,0.4,0.27,0.23,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.33,0.19,0.26,0.35,0.53,0.62,0.45,0.57,0.28,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 91, LAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.59,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.29,0.14,0.15,0.26,0.4,0.46,0.55,0.66,0.43,0.28,1	90.4%
PHX 89, POR 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.19,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.37,0.32,0.58,1	90.0%
DAL 94, SAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.48,0.54,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.42,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.35,0.26,0.21,0.31,0.4,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.57,0.42,1	89.6%