NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	115		Excitement	7.0 [425]		MVP	Shandon Anderson (HOU): +21.6%
Houston Rockets	122		Comeback	1.7 [710]		LVP	Raef LaFrentz (DEN): -8.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08	0.11	0.02	0.05	25	66%	0.14	3	-0.07	11	91%	0.04
Nick Van Exel	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	0.00	25	55%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
George McCloud	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.05	-0.02	6	62%	0.13	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Keon Clark	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	6	57%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ron Mercer	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.05	21	52%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Herren	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	9	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.18	0.04	0.01	15	76%	0.22	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Bryce Drew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.08	-0.00	8	56%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.05	0.02	11	71%	0.16	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Matt Bullard	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	13	46%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	12	44%	0.01	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	7	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Anthony Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	47%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	15	58%	0.02	4	-0.10	8	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	26.4	15.8	24.0	1.8	30.2	124.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +33.1%

HOU +3.7%

HOU +18.9%

DEN -6.3%

HOU +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	14.0	16.0	15.2	119.8	127.1	101.7
season	14.8	15.4		101.5	102.4
opponent	14.6	15.0		103.5	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.5	13.8	13.8	15.3	14.0
HOU	13.7	15.6	16.2	19.0	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	29	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.08	-8	1	-9	14.2	13.9	0.32	14.7	16.5	-1.85
Bryant Stith	10	9	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-4	1	13.5	14.1	-0.58	18.0	15.8	2.23
Chris Herren	23	23	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-5	3	13.7	14.1	-0.48	15.8	16.0	-0.26
Keon Clark	54	54	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-6	5	14.1	14.0	0.08	16.7	15.1	1.57
Antonio McDyess	82	82	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-3	-1	13.9	15.0	-1.15	16.1	15.4	0.73
Nick Van Exel	73	73	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-2	-3	14.1	13.7	0.48	16.0	15.8	0.26
Ron Mercer	86	87	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.23	-4	-3	-1	14.1	13.5	0.58	15.8	18.0	-2.23
George McCloud	67	67	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.38	1	-8	9	13.9	14.2	-0.32	16.5	14.7	1.85
Raef LaFrentz	56	56	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.18	-9	2	-11	14.2	13.7	0.51	15.2	17.1	-1.96

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shandon Anderson	96	96	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	16.0	0.0	15.98	14.0	0.0	14.02
Cuttino Mobley	50	51	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.32	6	1	5	16.8	15.0	1.80	14.0	14.0	0.04
Bryce Drew	32	32	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.18	6	1	5	17.2	15.4	1.77	15.8	13.1	2.69
Kenny Thomas	67	66	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.29	2	5	-3	16.8	14.1	2.74	14.2	13.6	0.56
Anthony Miller	49	49	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	4	-1	16.4	15.6	0.79	13.5	14.6	-1.04
Hakeem Olajuwon	34	35	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.11	4	3	1	16.5	15.7	0.81	14.7	13.6	1.09
Steve Francis	64	64	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.12	1	6	-5	15.4	17.2	-1.77	13.1	15.8	-2.69
Matt Bullard	42	42	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	2	3	13.8	17.7	-3.90	13.8	14.2	-0.46
Walt Williams	46	45	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	6	-5	15.0	16.8	-1.80	14.0	14.0	-0.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.6,0.55,0.68,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 104, SAS 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.83,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.93,0.9,0.96,1	93.8%
HOU 95, LAC 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.6%
MIA 76, ORL 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.93,0.95,0.99,1,1	93.3%