NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	7.6 [303]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +45.8%
Denver Nuggets	87		Comeback	5.9 [245]		LVP	George McCloud (DEN): -25.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.46	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.49,0.46	0.14	0.30	-0.01	11	86%	0.52	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	9	71%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.04
Alonzo Mourning	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,0.01,0.05	-0.03	0.07	-0.00	25	51%	0.13	3	-0.09	5	80%	-0.01
Rex Walters	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	8	37%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	4	37%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.19	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19	-0.10	-0.09	0.00	11	36%	-0.17	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.14	-0.08	-0.00	7	14%	-0.09	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.06	0.01	5	83%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	-0.00	5	79%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Chris Herren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	-0.01	0.06	0.01	8	56%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.00	17	55%	0.06	1	-0.05	13	62%	-0.03
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	15	40%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.23	-0.23	-0.10	-0.12	0.01	13	43%	-0.13	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.25	-0.25	-0.16	-0.10	-0.01	11	27%	-0.15	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	29.3	15.6	27.2	2.4	39.4	138.4
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +48.1%

DEN -10.7%

MIA +4.6%

MIA +12.7%

DEN -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	15.2	14.2	15.2	93.9	88.8	101.7
season	15.7	14.8		101.2	101.5
opponent	15.0	15.9		103.7	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.9	15.9	14.6	14.5	15.2
DEN	12.3	15.4	13.7	15.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clar. Weatherspoon	45	43	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.37	12	-7	19	14.9	15.5	-0.58	14.7	13.8	0.96
Voshon Lenard	72	69	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.40	9	-4	13	14.9	16.0	-1.03	14.0	14.7	-0.72
Dan Majerle	79	81	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.25	13	-8	21	14.6	17.9	-3.34	14.1	14.4	-0.20
Alonzo Mourning	72	73	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.20	13	-8	21	14.9	16.1	-1.19	14.2	14.0	0.25
Jamal Mashburn	65	67	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.46	2	3	-1	15.2	15.3	-0.15	14.0	14.5	-0.49
Rex Walters	28	26	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.09	3	2	1	15.5	15.1	0.36	15.1	13.8	1.27
Otis Thorpe	30	28	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.12	-5	10	-15	15.5	15.1	0.38	14.1	14.2	-0.06
P.J. Brown	49	52	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.01	-10	15	-25	15.8	14.6	1.18	13.7	14.8	-1.09
Anthony Carter	50	51	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	0.05	-12	17	-29	16.5	13.8	2.73	14.3	14.1	0.15

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	31	30	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-9	13	14.1	14.2	-0.08	15.9	14.9	1.05
Keon Clark	37	36	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.15	-5	0	-5	13.9	14.3	-0.38	14.3	15.7	-1.38
Popeye Jones	9	9	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.06	-3	-2	-1	15.9	14.0	1.88	15.1	15.2	-0.10
Cory Alexander	33	35	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.07	-2	-3	1	14.0	14.3	-0.28	15.0	15.3	-0.27
Bryant Stith	17	19	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	2	-9	18.1	13.4	4.76	16.8	14.8	2.03
Ron Mercer	81	79	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-7	9	13.4	18.1	-4.76	14.8	16.8	-2.03
Chris Herren	65	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-2	-1	14.3	14.0	0.28	15.3	15.0	0.27
Antonio McDyess	77	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.50	1	-6	7	14.1	14.3	-0.19	15.5	14.2	1.26
Raef LaFrentz	73	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.42	-3	-2	-1	14.1	14.3	-0.18	15.3	14.7	0.61
George McCloud	67	68	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.37	-9	4	-13	14.2	14.1	0.08	14.9	15.9	-1.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.68,0.74,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.84,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 100, ORL 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.63,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.92,0.92,0.87,0.78,0.74,0.85,0.76,0.73,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.84,0.78,0.42,0	92.4%
LAC 82, MEM 81	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.77,0.73,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.68,0.79,0.74,0.8,0.89,0.82,0.74,0.72,0.85,0.87,0.75,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.47,0.62,0.63,0.78,0.15,0	91.9%
LAC 105, UTA 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.67,0.77,0.74,0.6,0.47,0.62,0.64,0.59,0.58,0	91.8%