NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	103		Excitement	6.9 [433]		MVP	Emanual Davis (SEA): +29.6%
Denver Nuggets	93		Comeback	1.8 [373]		LVP	Vin Baker (SEA): -20.9%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Emanual Davis	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.08	0.20	-0.01	5	100%	0.30	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.10	0.11	0.01	20	73%	0.32	5	-0.11	8	100%	0.04
Brent Barry	0.15	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.05	-0.01	10	87%	0.28	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.04
Ruben Patterson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	5	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chuck Person	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	4	60%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Rashard Lewis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	4	60%	0.01	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Vin Baker	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.14	-0.07	-0.00	14	39%	-0.11	4	-0.10	5	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Mercer	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	20	61%	0.12	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.04	-0.03	12	73%	0.19	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.03	-0.01	9	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	21	52%	0.04	3	-0.08	8	50%	-0.06
Chris Herren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	1	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.06	-0.02	11	18%	-0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.4	23.6	15.7	24.1	1.5	28.2	116.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +40.1%

SEA +26.5%

DEN -4.4%

DEN -9.9%

DEN -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	DEN	NBA	SEA	DEN	NBA
this game	16.2	15.1	15.2	112.0	101.1	101.7
season	14.9	14.8		103.5	101.5
opponent	15.0	15.4		103.7	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	13.4	17.2	16.8	17.7	16.2
DEN	14.8	13.4	17.5	15.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	82	83	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.17	16	-6	22	15.6	20.5	-4.85	15.2	14.8	0.39
Emanual Davis	34	33	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.21	7	3	4	16.7	15.8	0.89	14.9	15.2	-0.30
Horace Grant	70	69	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.17	8	2	6	15.9	17.2	-1.32	15.7	13.5	2.20
Brent Barry	83	83	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.19	6	4	2	16.4	13.7	2.78	15.2	14.7	0.51
Vin Baker	80	80	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.16	7	3	4	16.2	15.7	0.58	15.8	10.8	4.94
Ruben Patterson	34	34	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.06	10	0	10	14.7	17.1	-2.38	15.9	14.7	1.15
Chuck Person	20	21	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.08	5	5	0	15.6	16.3	-0.73	12.5	15.9	-3.38
Greg Foster	29	29	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	9	-8	17.8	15.4	2.41	13.1	16.1	-2.96
Rashard Lewis	28	28	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.03	-10	20	-30	17.3	15.7	1.65	15.1	15.2	-0.08

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryant Stith	8	8	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-11	12	11.1	15.5	-4.39	19.4	15.9	3.51
Chris Herren	12	12	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	-9	8	12.6	15.5	-2.93	17.0	16.0	0.95
Keon Clark	49	48	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-9	8	14.6	15.8	-1.20	16.6	15.7	0.90
George McCloud	64	64	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.24	1	-11	12	14.3	17.1	-2.84	17.0	14.4	2.56
James Posey	28	28	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.03	-11	1	-12	17.1	14.3	2.84	14.4	17.0	-2.56
Raef LaFrentz	62	63	-0.42	-0.07	-0.35	-0.16	-9	-1	-8	15.3	14.8	0.49	16.4	15.6	0.86
Antonio McDyess	73	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.16	-10	0	-10	15.4	14.2	1.16	15.7	18.2	-2.50
Nick Van Exel	80	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.20	-9	-1	-8	15.5	12.6	2.93	16.0	17.0	-0.95
Ron Mercer	84	84	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.22	-11	1	-12	15.5	11.1	4.39	15.9	19.4	-3.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.39,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.31,0.07,0.16,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 94, MIN 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.47,0.44,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.59,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.5,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.4,0.17,0.25,0.04,0.02,0,0	92.7%
CLE 106, WAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.59,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.01,0.03,0.01,0	92.4%
DEN 100, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.03,0.02,0	92.2%