NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	110		Excitement	5.8 [636]		MVP	Metta World Peace (CHI): +14.5%
Washington Wizards	103		Comeback	3.8 [54]		LVP	Rod Strickland (WAS): -19.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Metta World Peace	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.03	0.09	-0.02	14	63%	0.22	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
B.J. Armstrong	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	6	100%	0.24	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.12	0.01	0.05	15	72%	0.10	1	-0.03	16	87%	0.03
Matt Maloney	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	83%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corey Benjamin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	8	69%	0.10	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.04	0.03	13	57%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Michael Ruffin	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	2	44%	-0.05	1	-0.04	5	40%	-0.05
Dickey Simpkins	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.03	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.03	0.03	4	109%	0.14	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.00	5	73%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Reggie Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	80%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	83%	0.05	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.08	-0.04	0.05	12	70%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.06
Gerard King	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jahidi White	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	4	70%	0.05	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	9	32%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.08	0.04	17	45%	-0.11	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.17	-0.04	-0.01	11	27%	-0.12	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.8	30.0	15.8	23.5	1.6	39.2	137.0
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +48.2%

CHI +9.3%

CHI +6.9%

WAS -10.9%

WAS -3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	WAS	NBA	CHI	WAS	NBA
this game	17.4	14.3	15.2	119.6	115.7	101.7
season	16.5	15.5		91.8	101.1
opponent	14.8	14.9		104.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	20.3	16.7	16.2	16.5	17.4
WAS	11.5	16.0	16.5	13.3	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
B.J. Armstrong	64	60	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.16	17	-10	27	17.0	18.6	-1.62	14.1	14.7	-0.54
Metta World Peace	71	69	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.28	10	-3	13	17.6	16.8	0.82	14.3	14.3	-0.03
Corey Benjamin	47	44	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	-1	9	16.3	18.6	-2.26	15.6	13.1	2.46
Michael Ruffin	26	23	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.10	9	-2	11	16.9	17.7	-0.78	12.7	14.9	-2.20
Will Perdue	29	28	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.09	9	-2	11	16.8	17.7	-0.95	15.6	13.8	1.82
Toni Kukoc	74	73	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.23	2	5	-3	17.8	15.9	1.87	14.2	14.7	-0.52
Elton Brand	67	65	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.21	-3	10	-13	18.0	15.9	2.15	13.5	16.6	-3.09
Dickey Simpkins	50	51	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	11	-15	18.5	16.2	2.31	14.8	13.6	1.21
Matt Maloney	32	32	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.22	-13	20	-33	17.0	17.7	-0.73	14.1	14.4	-0.31

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rod Strickland	65	69	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.23	5	-12	17	13.4	16.8	-3.43	17.5	17.2	0.30
Reggie Jordan	5	5	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.02	-3	-4	1	14.8	14.3	0.50	11.4	17.8	-6.39
Michael Smith	58	60	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.24	4	-11	15	13.5	15.8	-2.32	18.0	16.5	1.50
Juwan Howard	56	58	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.27	4	-11	15	13.3	16.0	-2.71	18.1	16.3	1.78
Jahidi White	31	30	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	2	-11	14.1	14.4	-0.30	20.2	16.1	4.14
Aaron Williams	38	40	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.17	-1	-6	5	16.1	13.0	3.06	16.3	18.3	-2.03
Tracy Murray	41	41	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	-2	-3	14.7	14.0	0.75	18.3	16.8	1.48
Richard Hamilton	29	32	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-4	1	14.8	14.1	0.74	15.5	18.5	-2.94
Gerard King	30	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.01	-10	3	-13	15.5	13.7	1.82	15.3	18.6	-3.27
Mitch Richmond	64	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.18	-8	1	-9	14.3	14.3	0.01	18.3	15.3	3.04
Chris Whitney	28	28	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.16	-9	2	-11	15.5	13.8	1.71	15.9	18.1	-2.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.61,0.67,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.4,0.29,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.16,0.1,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 108, BKN 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.75,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.19,0.18,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0	93.8%
PHI 103, CHA 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.66,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.06,0.13,0.14,0.04,0.08,0.01,0	93.6%
UTA 93, HOU 71	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.5%