NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	83		Excitement	4.1 [976]		MVP	Shawn Bradley (DAL): +10.5%
Dallas Mavericks	95		Comeback	1.4 [1007]		LVP	Hersey Hawkins (CHI): -17.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dedric Willoughby	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	11	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dickey Simpkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	8	62%	0.02	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	11	55%	0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Corey Benjamin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	9	33%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Anstey	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	10	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kornel David	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	60%	0.01	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Elton Brand	-0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.02	0.04	17	53%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	5	36%	-0.04	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Hersey Hawkins	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.15	-0.04	-0.02	4	27%	-0.05	5	-0.12	3	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	-0.00	8	81%	0.13	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	11	63%	0.08	0	0.00	5	100%	0.01
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	86%	0.07	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	20	52%	0.04	3	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Cedric Ceballos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	11	45%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.02	7	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	9	33%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.0	26.4	15.8	24.4	1.8	23.4	118.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +33.0%

DAL +12.4%

CHI -5.8%

DAL +14.4%

CHI -4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DAL	NBA	CHI	DAL	NBA
this game	16.4	15.2	15.2	90.2	105.6	101.7
season	16.5	14.8		91.8	104.2
opponent	14.8	14.9		104.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	19.5	14.5	18.7	13.4	16.4
DAL	14.6	15.5	13.2	17.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dickey Simpkins	33	35	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.16	6	-18	24	13.9	17.9	-3.99	16.1	14.6	1.54
Corey Benjamin	5	5	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-10	8	17.0	16.4	0.60	20.4	14.9	5.51
Metta World Peace	55	54	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.26	3	-15	18	15.3	18.1	-2.84	16.2	13.7	2.56
Kornel David	50	50	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.09	-10	-2	-8	16.2	16.7	-0.56	14.3	16.3	-2.02
Dedric Willoughby	41	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-5	-2	16.2	16.6	-0.39	15.0	15.3	-0.28
Will Perdue	37	34	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	-1	-10	18.5	15.1	3.43	13.8	16.0	-2.21
Randy Brown	68	66	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.05	-8	-4	-4	16.0	17.7	-1.72	15.8	13.6	2.15
Chris Anstey	26	25	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	-1	-10	18.4	15.7	2.72	15.6	15.1	0.50
Hersey Hawkins	75	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.21	-9	-3	-6	17.0	14.1	2.84	14.8	17.1	-2.29
Elton Brand	70	67	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.17	-11	-1	-10	16.9	15.0	1.83	14.7	16.6	-1.83

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	61	63	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.05	18	-6	24	14.7	16.3	-1.69	17.0	15.1	1.94
Shawn Bradley	66	68	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.09	15	-3	18	15.1	15.6	-0.52	16.4	16.4	0.02
Michael Finley	86	88	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.19	11	1	10	15.3	12.0	3.35	16.6	12.2	4.38
Steve Nash	64	66	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	0	12	15.2	15.2	0.06	17.1	14.7	2.43
Erick Strickland	48	49	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.00	10	2	8	14.7	15.7	-1.01	16.8	16.0	0.73
Cedric Ceballos	48	49	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.13	1	11	-10	14.5	16.0	-1.46	15.6	17.3	-1.72
Hubert Davis	55	55	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.14	-4	16	-20	16.3	13.5	2.85	14.6	19.2	-4.65
Sean Rooks	22	22	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	15	-18	16.2	14.9	1.36	17.5	16.1	1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.88,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 100, BKN 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	95.6%
MIN 86, CHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.82,0.8,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
VAN 98, DEN 110	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.65,0.72,0.71,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.51,0.64,0.67,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%