NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	118		Excitement	2.0 [1243]		MVP	Mario Elie (SAS): +4.6%
Golden State Warriors	89		Comeback	1.0 [1147]		LVP	Donyell Marshall (GSW): -6.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Elie	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	0.00	0.04	6	100%	0.06	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	16	64%	0.05	2	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	83%	0.05	2	-0.01	2	0%	-0.01
Terry Porter	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	1	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Chucky Brown	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	5	64%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.07	5	20%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	0.00	0.06	2	125%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	5	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	13	61%	0.02	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.01
Samaki Walker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	9	65%	0.01	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
David Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.05	8	42%	-0.02	2	-0.02	8	50%	-0.01
Jerome Kersey	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.12	-0.01	-0.09	8	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Farmer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.04	7	79%	0.02	2	0.00	10	90%	0.01
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.01	-0.07	12	39%	0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	7	62%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Tim Legler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	4	60%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Vonteego Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	2	33%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Terry Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	14	36%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	10	30%	-0.05	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	10	32%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
John Starks	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	5	27%	-0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.15	0.00	-0.08	14	23%	-0.07	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	31.4	15.5	25.9	1.8	26.2	126.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +38.1%

SAS +10.0%

SAS +1.4%

SAS +1.2%

GSW -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	14.8	13.3	15.2	115.7	86.4	101.7
season	15.5	14.7		101.6	97.2
opponent	14.7	15.4		105.8	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.2	15.0	14.0	16.8	14.8
GSW	15.0	13.8	13.7	10.9	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Elie	46	47	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.16	18	11	7	13.7	15.7	-2.03	14.7	12.2	2.47
Chucky Brown	55	56	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.42	26	3	23	13.2	16.6	-3.40	14.3	12.2	2.03
Avery Johnson	42	41	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.34	23	6	17	13.4	15.7	-2.39	15.9	11.6	4.26
Tim Duncan	46	47	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.45	26	3	23	13.7	15.6	-1.95	14.6	12.3	2.31
David Robinson	41	42	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.19	16	13	3	13.2	15.8	-2.58	15.7	11.7	4.01
Malik Rose	69	69	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.17	13	16	-3	15.6	13.1	2.43	12.4	15.1	-2.70
Samaki Walker	48	48	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	26	-23	16.0	13.7	2.29	11.3	15.1	-3.80
Terry Porter	36	37	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.22	14	15	-1	15.1	14.6	0.45	13.5	13.2	0.31
Jerome Kersey	43	43	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.06	3	26	-23	16.3	13.7	2.62	11.7	14.5	-2.90
Jaren Jackson	39	41	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.16	10	19	-9	15.4	14.3	1.09	13.9	13.0	0.89
Steve Kerr	19	18	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	30	-31	16.9	14.3	2.62	9.2	14.2	-5.06
Antonio Daniels	26	26	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.16	-6	35	-41	16.8	14.1	2.79	9.4	14.7	-5.24

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Farmer	43	42	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-38	47	12.1	14.2	-2.14	16.0	13.9	2.18
Tim Legler	26	26	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-32	35	10.9	14.2	-3.23	16.8	14.1	2.69
Damon Jones	43	43	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-27	25	11.7	14.5	-2.78	15.3	14.4	0.97
Vonteego Cummings	17	18	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.22	-10	-19	9	10.4	13.9	-3.58	14.3	14.9	-0.52
Jason Caffey	39	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.14	-11	-18	7	14.0	12.9	1.10	14.8	14.8	0.01
Adonal Foyle	44	44	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.17	-14	-15	1	14.2	12.7	1.51	14.2	15.2	-0.91
Terry Cummings	27	27	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.45	-24	-5	-19	14.0	13.1	0.89	14.7	14.8	-0.08
Antawn Jamison	64	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.17	-16	-13	-3	13.9	12.4	1.54	14.9	14.6	0.26
Donyell Marshall	53	52	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.21	-18	-11	-7	12.8	13.9	-1.13	14.2	15.4	-1.17
Chris Mills	58	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.34	-23	-6	-17	13.7	12.9	0.84	14.2	15.5	-1.37
John Starks	48	48	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.25	-21	-8	-13	14.4	12.4	2.02	14.5	15.0	-0.46
Mookie Blaylock	53	52	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.12	-18	-11	-7	14.7	11.9	2.84	14.2	15.3	-1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 108, NJN 87	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.0%
BKN 112, DEN 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.9%
PHI 112, SAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	97.9%