NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	105		Excitement	2.3 [1217]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +3.6%
Chicago Bulls	87		Comeback	1.2 [1109]		LVP	Randy Brown (CHI): -8.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	13	64%	0.05	2	-0.01	7	57%	-0.01
Voshon Lenard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.19	0.00	0.18	11	100%	0.03	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	9	58%	0.03	2	-0.02	8	62%	-0.01
Mark Strickland	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	9	40%	0.01	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rex Walters	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	1	0%	-0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	4	57%	0.01	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	0.01	-0.07	8	52%	0.03	4	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	6	57%	0.02	4	-0.05	2	100%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	8	61%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	15	69%	0.05	5	-0.05	6	100%	0.00
Chris Anstey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	67%	0.00	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Kornel David	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	27%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dedric Willoughby	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.02	9	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	2	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Dickey Simpkins	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	4	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	60%	0.01	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Elton Brand	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.05	4	33%	-0.02	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	0.00	9	39%	-0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.13	-0.00	-0.05	10	20%	-0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	1.8	29.0	15.6	30.3	1.7	25.0	132.3
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +30.8%

MIA +7.0%

MIA +4.0%

MIA +3.5%

MIA +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	13.4	15.6	15.2	106.1	87.9	101.7
season	15.7	16.5		101.2	91.8
opponent	14.9	15.9		102.3	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.0	12.8	11.2	16.4	13.4
CHI	16.7	16.5	13.6	16.4	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	60	59	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.41	28	-10	38	12.2	15.3	-3.12	15.9	15.3	0.54
P.J. Brown	63	61	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.17	19	-1	20	12.2	15.6	-3.32	15.3	16.1	-0.79
Tim Hardaway	55	56	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.04	14	4	10	12.5	14.6	-2.06	15.4	16.0	-0.58
Alonzo Mourning	55	54	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.24	21	-3	24	13.5	13.3	0.23	16.1	15.1	0.98
Dan Majerle	52	50	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.00	11	7	4	13.3	13.6	-0.25	15.3	16.0	-0.62
Clar. Weatherspoon	57	59	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.02	8	10	-2	13.6	13.3	0.28	15.9	15.2	0.75
Voshon Lenard	52	53	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.04	4	14	-10	14.6	12.2	2.34	15.5	15.9	-0.42
Anthony Carter	28	28	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.21	12	6	6	13.9	13.3	0.58	15.8	15.6	0.24
Mark Strickland	35	36	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.36	-9	27	-36	14.3	13.0	1.26	15.9	15.5	0.34
Duane Causwell	22	23	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.37	-12	30	-42	16.0	12.7	3.34	15.1	15.8	-0.73
Rex Walters	16	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	24	-30	15.9	13.0	2.90	15.9	15.6	0.27

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Anstey	22	22	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.37	12	-30	42	14.5	16.0	-1.53	16.0	12.7	3.34
Kornel David	21	21	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-18	18	14.4	16.0	-1.55	12.8	13.6	-0.81
Michael Ruffin	30	29	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.21	5	-23	28	15.8	15.6	0.22	16.0	12.4	3.61
Fred Hoiberg	54	54	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.04	-2	-16	14	14.9	16.5	-1.54	14.4	12.3	2.08
Will Perdue	35	35	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.30	-14	-4	-10	15.4	15.8	-0.38	13.2	13.6	-0.42
Metta World Peace	29	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-16	14	13.9	16.4	-2.52	15.0	12.8	2.17
Randy Brown	45	43	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.07	-4	-14	10	15.1	16.1	-0.98	13.5	13.4	0.16
Dedric Willoughby	59	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-10	2	16.1	15.0	1.13	13.6	13.2	0.34
Dickey Simpkins	42	42	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.10	-16	-2	-14	16.5	15.0	1.44	12.3	14.3	-1.97
Toni Kukoc	63	64	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.22	-20	2	-22	16.4	14.4	2.02	12.6	15.0	-2.41
Hersey Hawkins	40	40	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.24	-22	4	-26	16.5	15.1	1.47	11.9	14.5	-2.63
Elton Brand	55	56	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.15	-19	1	-20	16.1	15.0	1.08	12.6	14.6	-2.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 135, BOS 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%
CHI 118, BKN 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%
MIN 123, ORL 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%