NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	108		Excitement	6.0 [366]		MVP	Derrick Coleman (CHH): +12.1%
Toronto Raptors	98		Comeback	1.1 [341]		LVP	Doug Christie (TOR): -14.7%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Coleman	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.02	0.08	-0.02	8	67%	0.15	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Phills	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.03	-0.02	16	59%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
David Wesley	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	8	71%	0.16	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.02
Chucky Brown	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.03	11	62%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	14	62%	0.02	2	-0.04	17	88%	0.01
Eldridge Recasner	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	8	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	10	70%	0.01
Chuck Person	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	6	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.17	0.04	0.10	12	84%	0.15	1	-0.04	8	100%	-0.00
Michael Stewart	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	5	42%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	0.04	9	55%	-0.04	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Vince Carter	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	0.03	19	54%	0.03	5	-0.12	3	100%	0.01
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	4	43%	-0.06	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	5	20%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.04	-0.03	11	40%	-0.03	4	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	13	36%	-0.13	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.6	29.2	15.8	26.2	2.6	38.7	137.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +53.5%

TOR -7.2%

TOR -17.2%

CHH +23.4%

TOR -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	TOR	NBA	CHH	TOR	NBA
this game	14.3	14.7	15.8	110.2	97.0	99.6
season	15.7	15.6		99.2	99.0
opponent	15.9	15.5		101.2	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	13.8	14.0	16.2	13.4	14.3
TOR	15.0	14.3	17.2	12.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Phills	85	88	0.85	-0.35	1.21	0.15	24	-14	38	13.5	19.5	-6.07	14.8	13.8	1.03
Eddie Jones	92	95	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.15	18	-8	26	14.1	16.7	-2.55	14.6	15.3	-0.71
David Wesley	84	86	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.28	10	0	10	13.9	16.7	-2.85	14.4	16.1	-1.73
Derrick Coleman	52	54	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.19	3	7	-4	15.5	12.9	2.57	15.2	14.0	1.20
Elden Campbell	60	62	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.25	0	10	-10	13.7	15.2	-1.44	14.4	15.2	-0.80
Chucky Brown	74	75	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	7	-4	13.4	16.8	-3.39	14.5	15.3	-0.82
Chuck Person	23	24	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	10	-10	18.7	12.9	5.72	14.4	14.8	-0.38
Eldridge Recasner	20	21	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.02	-8	18	-26	16.7	13.7	3.05	15.9	14.3	1.57

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Thomas	32	29	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.06	-1	-9	8	13.6	15.2	-1.61	15.6	13.7	1.86
Michael Stewart	3	3	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.06	-2	-8	6	9.3	14.8	-5.49	7.3	14.5	-7.16
Tracy McGrady	54	51	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-11	12	13.3	16.2	-2.94	15.1	13.4	1.67
Alvin Williams	23	24	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-6	2	16.2	14.2	2.01	13.0	14.7	-1.63
John Wallace	29	27	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.03	-10	0	-10	15.1	14.5	0.62	14.6	14.2	0.44
Charles Oakley	77	75	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.39	4	-14	18	15.4	12.3	3.11	15.8	9.3	6.50
Dee Brown	73	69	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.18	-4	-6	2	13.7	17.2	-3.53	14.9	12.8	2.06
Kevin Willis	59	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-5	0	15.0	14.1	0.89	12.8	16.6	-3.76
Doug Christie	74	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.14	-10	0	-10	15.8	11.5	4.29	13.6	16.3	-2.71
Vince Carter	81	80	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.13	-19	9	-28	14.5	15.4	-0.98	13.6	17.3	-3.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.36,0.35,0.23,0.31,0.18,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 115, MIN 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.11,0.03,0.02,0.05,0,0.01,0,0	94.6%
WAS 75, CHI 69	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.37,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.26,0.29,0.2,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.21,0.16,0.09,0	94.5%
UTA 99, PHX 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.07,0,0,0	94.5%