NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	94		Excitement	4.8 [519]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +24.8%
Cleveland Cavaliers	87		Comeback	1.1 [519]		LVP	Brevin Knight (CLE): -16.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0.25	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.18	0.07	0.00	11	92%	0.29	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Voshon Lenard	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	7	83%	0.09	2	-0.06	9	100%	0.03
Jamal Mashburn	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	18	55%	0.10	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.03
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Terry Porter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	5	56%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	5	60%	0.07	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	8	30%	-0.09	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitchell Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	79%	0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	56%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	0.04	10	61%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Cedric Henderson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	8	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Stack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	0.04	8	56%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	0.04	29	51%	-0.02	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-0.03	8	35%	-0.05	5	-0.12	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	27.3	15.4	23.4	2.5	35.5	128.8
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.3%

MIA +15.9%

MIA +0.1%

CLE -7.0%

CLE -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CLE	NBA	MIA	CLE	NBA
this game	16.6	18.1	15.8	111.9	106.1	99.6
season	16.6	16.3		101.3	97.3
opponent	16.2	16.7		99.2	96.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	16.5	18.1	16.2	16.6
CLE	17.9	19.5	17.9	17.3	18.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	68	67	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	-2	11	16.8	15.8	0.97	17.6	20.5	-2.95
Dan Majerle	69	67	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.28	5	2	3	16.4	17.7	-1.30	17.9	18.9	-0.99
P.J. Brown	71	70	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.28	4	3	1	16.2	18.6	-2.39	17.9	19.5	-1.61
Alonzo Mourning	63	63	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.20	5	2	3	16.4	17.3	-0.92	17.8	19.3	-1.55
Tim Hardaway	58	56	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	2	3	16.9	16.0	0.86	17.4	19.7	-2.24
Terry Porter	50	48	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	7	-7	16.3	17.0	-0.73	18.8	17.2	1.62
Clar. Weatherspoon	32	30	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.10	5	2	3	18.2	15.6	2.62	19.6	17.3	2.28
Voshon Lenard	9	9	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.01	2	5	-3	15.7	16.7	-1.04	23.9	17.4	6.48

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny Newman	17	18	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.05	-3	-4	1	17.4	18.3	-0.97	17.8	16.3	1.58
Bob Sura	18	21	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.04	-4	-3	-1	20.9	17.3	3.55	16.2	16.7	-0.48
Mitchell Butler	34	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.12	-3	-4	1	19.7	17.0	2.71	17.2	16.2	1.00
Shawn Kemp	74	76	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.28	2	-9	11	17.4	25.0	-7.62	16.9	13.2	3.70
Andrew DeClercq	47	47	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-8	9	17.5	19.0	-1.53	16.7	16.5	0.19
Danny Ferry	35	37	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.04	-8	1	-9	19.0	17.5	1.53	16.5	16.7	-0.19
Ryan Stack	8	8	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.02	-9	2	-11	25.0	17.4	7.62	13.2	16.9	-3.70
Wesley Person	48	48	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.18	-4	-3	-1	17.0	19.7	-2.71	16.2	17.2	-1.00
Brevin Knight	64	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-4	1	17.3	20.9	-3.55	16.7	16.2	0.48
Cedric Henderson	65	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-3	-1	18.3	17.4	0.97	16.3	17.8	-1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.26,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 94, DET 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.28,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.36,0.22,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
LAL 100, CHI 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
SAS 104, DEN 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%