NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	89		Excitement	6.6 [280]		MVP	Sam Mitchell (MIN): +14.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	95		Comeback	1.8 [370]		LVP	David Robinson (SAS): -27.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Elie	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	17	50%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Avery Johnson	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.01	0.05	0.02	18	56%	0.11	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	43%	-0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Sean Elliott	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.19,-0.19	-0.20	-0.02	-0.02	16	24%	-0.13	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23	-0.17	-0.06	-0.00	10	45%	-0.06	8	-0.17	2	100%	-0.00
David Robinson	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.11	-0.11	0.05	9	61%	-0.06	6	-0.21	10	50%	-0.08

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.07	0.01	10	71%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Malik Sealy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.02	0.02	5	87%	0.09	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.00	9	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bill Curley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dean Garrett	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	8	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.13	-0.00	-0.06	19	37%	0.05	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	9	44%	-0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	16	42%	-0.03	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	1.8	27.2	15.7	22.2	2.4	36.6	131.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +22.2%

MIN +5.2%

MIN +0.6%

MIN +20.5%

MIN +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIN	NBA	SAS	MIN	NBA
this game	15.7	13.7	15.8	91.8	96.0	99.6
season	15.9	15.0		101.1	98.6
opponent	15.9	15.9		98.6	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.2	14.5	17.8	14.7	15.7
MIN	12.1	13.7	16.5	13.0	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	20	21	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.03	-2	-4	2	15.4	15.8	-0.41	11.6	14.2	-2.62
Avery Johnson	74	76	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-6	6	15.3	17.0	-1.68	13.5	14.2	-0.63
Steve Kerr	23	24	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-2	-2	17.0	15.3	1.68	13.6	13.7	-0.08
Mario Elie	70	71	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-5	4	15.5	16.3	-0.74	13.7	13.5	0.21
David Robinson	77	78	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-4	2	15.5	16.5	-1.04	13.9	12.9	1.05
Tim Duncan	80	83	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-5	4	15.6	16.4	-0.84	13.9	12.7	1.12
Sean Elliott	72	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.44	4	-10	14	15.9	15.1	0.86	14.1	12.5	1.61
Jerome Kersey	30	29	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	4	-14	16.5	15.4	1.08	12.8	14.1	-1.26
Jaren Jackson	39	39	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	8	-22	16.0	15.5	0.47	14.1	13.4	0.64

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Mitchell	40	40	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.33	7	-1	8	12.1	14.7	-2.58	15.1	16.1	-0.97
Malik Sealy	50	48	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.35	6	0	6	12.5	14.9	-2.36	15.0	16.4	-1.47
Tom Hammonds	23	23	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.03	14	-8	22	14.0	13.6	0.41	16.4	15.5	0.93
Bobby Jackson	25	25	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.22	5	1	4	14.8	13.3	1.44	16.6	15.4	1.13
Joe Smith	55	55	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.25	1	5	-4	14.4	12.7	1.69	16.4	14.8	1.65
Stephon Marbury	74	72	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.10	1	5	-4	13.3	14.8	-1.44	15.4	16.6	-1.13
Dean Garrett	69	68	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.22	-3	9	-12	14.2	12.6	1.56	15.1	17.3	-2.22
Bill Curley	23	22	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.04	5	1	4	11.9	14.2	-2.31	16.5	15.5	0.95
Kevin Garnett	85	82	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.18	-6	12	-18	14.2	10.4	3.88	15.6	16.5	-0.88
Anthony Peeler	51	50	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	6	-6	14.3	13.0	1.33	16.6	14.8	1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.54,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.44,0.41,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.57,0.67,0.85,0.82,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 87, UTA 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.81,0.96,0.99,0.95,0.9,0.95,1,1,1	93.8%
WAS 99, ATL 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.46,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.7,0.8,0.77,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.4%
DEN 91, POR 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.84,0.97,0.93,1	93.4%