NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	111		Excitement	10.7 [30]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +41.0%
Toronto Raptors	105		Comeback	17.9 [119]		LVP	P.J. Brown (MIA): -39.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.41	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.06	0.35	0.00	15	65%	0.48	2	-0.08	7	57%	-0.00
Keith Askins	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	7	41%	-0.05	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Alonzo Mourning	-0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	16	52%	-0.04	3	-0.07	12	58%	-0.05
Duane Causwell	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.12,0.01,-0.21,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	24	50%	0.20	4	-0.32	8	75%	-0.00
Marty Conlon	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	5	39%	-0.10	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.05
Mark Strickland	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	6	17%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.40	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.33,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.4,-0.4	-0.15	-0.26	-0.01	9	45%	-0.06	6	-0.33	4	50%	-0.04

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Oliver Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.11	0.01	9	65%	0.21	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.04	-0.01	10	65%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	63%	0.01	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.01	7	75%	0.11	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.08	0.00	15	53%	-0.05	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.03
Chauncey Billups	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.06	-0.20	-0.01	7	44%	-0.09	2	-0.16	4	50%	-0.06
Marcus Camby	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.2,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.19	-0.11	-0.01	10	0%	-0.28	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Doug Christie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.01,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.31	-0.31	-0.05	-0.25	0.02	18	62%	0.11	7	-0.42	6	100%	0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.0	2.5	28.4	17.6	28.3	3.2	36.5	1.5	21.2	164.2
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	1.6	18.4	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.0%

TOR -11.7%

MIA +22.0%

MIA +1.3%

TOR -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	13.9	15.6	15.6	103.7	96.3	102.5
season	15.8	15.5		104.7	98.7
opponent	14.8	16.2		108.2	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	13.4	15.0	14.7	12.9	13.0	13.9
TOR	14.3	15.0	17.2	15.9	15.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	90	92	1.01	-0.51	1.51	0.42	20	-14	34	13.3	17.2	-3.92	15.9	13.5	2.39
P.J. Brown	75	77	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.43	13	-7	20	13.9	13.9	-0.04	16.5	13.2	3.39
Alonzo Mourning	73	75	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.30	6	0	6	13.5	14.7	-1.21	16.1	14.3	1.83
Tim Hardaway	103	104	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.33	3	3	0	13.8	14.7	-0.91	15.4	19.4	-4.03
Eric Murdock	57	59	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	1	4	14.3	13.4	0.86	15.2	16.0	-0.79
Keith Askins	46	46	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.08	8	-2	10	13.0	14.5	-1.54	17.0	14.5	2.55
Duane Causwell	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	5	-4	16.5	13.5	2.95	16.7	15.4	1.35
Marty Conlon	28	26	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.09	-2	8	-10	12.0	14.5	-2.50	13.1	16.3	-3.20
Mark Strickland	29	30	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.00	-11	17	-28	15.9	13.1	2.77	13.2	16.4	-3.20
Brent Barry	22	24	-0.41	0.91	-1.33	-0.03	-13	19	-32	17.0	13.1	3.87	13.0	16.3	-3.32

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alvin Williams	26	24	0.25	-0.75	0.99	-0.10	12	-18	30	14.5	15.9	-1.38	14.6	13.7	0.96
Tracy McGrady	70	67	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.28	-3	-3	0	15.3	16.0	-0.70	13.4	14.6	-1.19
Reggie Slater	27	29	0.17	-0.67	0.85	0.17	0	-6	6	18.1	14.7	3.45	12.9	14.3	-1.39
Oliver Miller	57	54	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.18	12	-18	30	15.3	15.8	-0.49	14.4	13.3	1.14
John Thomas	4	5	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.02	-2	-4	2	11.0	15.7	-4.72	16.8	13.7	3.06
John Wallace	67	64	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.22	1	-7	8	14.8	16.8	-2.05	14.7	12.7	1.94
Dee Brown	66	65	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.24	0	-6	6	15.4	15.7	-0.32	13.9	13.9	-0.04
Marcus Camby	67	67	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.25	-18	12	-30	15.9	14.9	1.01	13.0	15.4	-2.43
Doug Christie	94	92	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.52	-9	3	-12	15.4	16.4	-0.99	13.8	14.4	-0.61
Chauncey Billups	67	68	-1.23	0.73	-1.96	-0.55	-23	17	-40	16.4	14.3	2.10	14.1	13.5	0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.79,0.91,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.81,0.9,0.69,0.58,0.54,0.25,0.15,0.07,0.13,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 94, MIA 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.72,0.9,0.85,0.91,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.54,0.24,0.11,0.06,0.04,0	89.3%
PHI 118, MIN 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.59,0.54,0.65,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.88,0.55,0.26,0.54,0.38,0.1,0.06,0,0	88.9%
LAL 106, POR 101	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.46,0.32,0.45,0.43,0.26,0	88.2%