NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	103		Excitement	3.0 [1137]		MVP	Cory Alexander (DEN): +14.3%
Denver Nuggets	128		Comeback	1.2 [392]		LVP	Anthony Johnson (SAC): -8.1%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Billy Owens	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.02	5	87%	0.09	2	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Stewart	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	6	61%	0.01	2	-0.01	6	83%	0.00
Lawrence Funderburke	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.04	7	57%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	11	63%	0.02	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Terry Dehere	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	6	42%	0.01	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Hendrickson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	13	39%	-0.03	2	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Corliss Williamson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	17	50%	0.00	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.18	-0.01	-0.11	9	29%	-0.02	4	-0.06	6	83%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.01	-0.02	13	72%	0.14	1	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.01	-0.03	17	74%	0.14	5	-0.02	13	100%	0.04
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.00	15	70%	0.12	2	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.03	8	56%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	11	58%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	7	62%	0.01	2	-0.00	7	71%	0.01
Eric Washington	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wolf	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	3	67%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.4	30.4	15.5	28.2	1.6	29.2	128.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +31.3%

DEN +8.9%

SAC -11.0%

DEN +18.8%

DEN +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	14.4	15.2	15.6	105.1	132.0	102.5
season	15.2	16.2		98.5	96.7
opponent	15.2	15.3		109.5	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.4	13.9	14.7	15.5	14.4
DEN	16.1	16.1	16.7	12.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lawrence Funderburke	37	38	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-23	21	14.9	14.0	0.95	13.8	16.1	-2.25
Michael Stewart	42	43	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-25	25	14.2	14.4	-0.21	16.0	14.5	1.50
Mark Hendrickson	32	35	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.02	-1	-24	23	13.8	14.6	-0.76	15.4	15.1	0.34
Terry Dehere	31	32	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.13	-1	-24	23	14.1	14.5	-0.43	16.3	14.6	1.73
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	44	47	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.03	-7	-18	11	14.9	13.9	1.00	15.0	15.3	-0.32
Anthony Johnson	67	65	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.36	-24	-1	-23	14.5	14.1	0.43	14.6	16.3	-1.73
Corliss Williamson	70	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.18	-19	-6	-13	14.4	14.3	0.05	15.2	15.3	-0.11
Chris Robinson	68	66	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.37	-27	2	-29	14.3	14.4	-0.06	14.8	15.9	-1.05
Billy Owens	52	49	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.19	-22	-3	-19	14.2	14.6	-0.43	15.6	14.8	0.82
Otis Thorpe	47	44	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.18	-22	-3	-19	14.1	14.6	-0.56	15.7	14.8	0.87

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaPhonso Ellis	78	79	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.40	33	-8	41	15.3	14.9	0.36	14.7	13.0	1.68
Cory Alexander	79	81	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.33	29	-4	33	15.1	15.6	-0.52	14.6	13.0	1.64
Dean Garrett	54	55	0.41	0.10	0.31	-0.15	19	6	13	16.2	13.9	2.38	14.3	14.5	-0.19
Johnny Newman	80	80	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.25	22	3	19	14.9	16.6	-1.77	14.2	14.8	-0.58
Anthony Goldwire	73	74	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.25	20	5	15	14.9	16.2	-1.30	14.4	14.2	0.14
Bryant Stith	47	47	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.20	-2	27	-29	15.6	14.8	0.75	13.5	15.1	-1.63
Danny Fortson	42	44	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.04	2	23	-21	14.7	15.5	-0.83	15.2	13.6	1.62
Joe Wolf	16	16	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	25	-25	16.9	14.8	2.10	13.7	14.5	-0.80
Eric Washington	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	25	-25	12.2	15.3	-3.06	11.3	14.5	-3.12
Tony Battie	12	11	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.11	2	23	-21	13.4	15.4	-2.02	12.7	14.6	-1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 94, NJN 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
WAS 84, SAS 106	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.65,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
POR 83, BOS 115	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%