NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	85		Excitement	6.9 [399]		MVP	Tracy Murray (WAS): +8.8%
Washington Wizards	88		Comeback	2.0 [770]		LVP	Bo Outlaw (ORL): -26.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Price	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Benoit	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	60%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	-0.05	0.03	14	55%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Derek Strong	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	11	48%	-0.03	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.03
Nick Anderson	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	28	43%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Derek Harper	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.08	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	8	39%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Dan Schayes	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	8	33%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.18,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.26	-0.19	-0.09	-0.01	6	43%	0.02	8	-0.28	2	0%	-0.03

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	9	85%	0.18	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	11	45%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ledell Eackles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harvey Grant	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Davis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.03	-0.03	18	50%	0.06	4	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,0.02,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	21	50%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	0%	-0.06
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.17	-0.00	-0.02	15	37%	0.07	6	-0.22	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.3	22.4	14.5	24.2	1.8	39.2	125.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +54.4%

ORL -2.5%

WAS +6.4%

ORL -9.8%

WAS +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	WAS	NBA	ORL	WAS	NBA
this game	16.2	15.3	15.6	93.4	95.7	102.5
season	16.7	15.1		100.3	102.8
opponent	15.6	15.6		102.2	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.1	17.3	15.7	16.5	16.2
WAS	15.5	14.0	15.6	16.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Harper	66	66	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.35	14	-17	31	15.6	17.7	-2.14	16.1	13.4	2.64
Horace Grant	80	82	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.49	8	-11	19	15.7	19.2	-3.43	15.6	12.8	2.82
David Benoit	20	20	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.07	-11	8	-19	18.0	15.6	2.35	13.7	15.8	-2.06
Bo Outlaw	76	78	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.48	6	-9	15	15.7	18.7	-3.08	15.8	12.8	2.98
Dan Schayes	52	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-7	4	-11	16.9	15.1	1.81	16.0	14.5	1.45
Derek Strong	50	51	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.21	-7	4	-11	16.0	16.3	-0.32	14.2	16.7	-2.56
Nick Anderson	86	86	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.41	-1	-2	1	16.2	15.8	0.39	15.3	15.8	-0.55
Mark Price	25	26	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.06	-17	14	-31	17.7	15.6	2.14	13.4	16.1	-2.64

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy Murray	47	48	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.13	14	-11	25	14.7	16.0	-1.30	16.6	15.7	0.97
Chris Webber	82	81	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	0	3	15.4	14.4	1.03	16.3	15.4	0.86
Ledell Eackles	33	31	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.01	10	-7	17	14.6	15.7	-1.11	16.8	15.8	0.92
Harvey Grant	25	25	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.05	11	-8	19	14.0	15.8	-1.86	17.6	15.6	1.98
Juwan Howard	72	71	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.47	-7	10	-17	15.7	13.8	1.87	15.7	17.8	-2.10
Rod Strickland	87	87	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.37	-4	7	-11	15.6	10.0	5.62	16.3	13.2	3.05
Chris Whitney	5	5	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.05	7	-4	11	10.0	15.6	-5.62	10.6	16.5	-5.89
Calbert Cheaney	63	64	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.46	-9	12	-21	15.7	14.4	1.37	15.8	17.1	-1.29
Ben Wallace	22	19	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	5	-7	15.0	15.4	-0.47	17.7	15.7	1.99
Terry Davis	24	24	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.10	-8	11	-19	16.5	14.9	1.66	14.5	16.8	-2.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.44,0.56,0.44,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.81,0.95,0.99,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 91, MIL 97	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.67,0.81,0.89,0.99,0.98,1	93.0%
MIN 99, BOS 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.75,0.76,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.86,0.93,0.97,1,1	92.8%
CLE 86, PHX 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.87,0.81,0.96,0.94,1,1	92.6%