NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	80		Excitement	8.2 [190]		MVP	Gerald Madkins (GSW): +9.5%
San Antonio Spurs	88		Comeback	2.6 [924]		LVP	Jim Jackson (GSW): -29.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Madkins	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.01	4	91%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Muggsy Bogues	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.01	4	87%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Duane Ferrell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	5	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.00	-0.08	-0.00	11	54%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.06
Tony Delk	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.04	-0.16	0.01	8	48%	-0.19	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.07
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24	-0.09	-0.16	-0.00	9	35%	-0.12	2	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Donyell Marshall	-0.25	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.16	-0.12	-0.03	20	30%	-0.12	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.30	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.3	-0.15	-0.17	-0.03	21	36%	-0.18	3	-0.12	3	67%	-0.03

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Perdue	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	7	57%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brad Lohaus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Geary	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.11	-0.11	-0.15	0.03	-0.02	13	56%	0.08	8	-0.20	10	80%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	0.00	-0.13	0.01	12	50%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	0.00	-0.14	0.00	4	75%	0.04	2	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.23,-0.29,-0.29,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.12	-0.14	-0.00	9	31%	-0.25	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.07
David Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.10	-0.21	-0.01	15	53%	-0.06	4	-0.23	15	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.0	1.5	23.9	15.0	26.5	1.7	32.4	1.5	19.3	143.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	1.6	18.4	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +34.2%

GSW -5.0%

SAS +29.3%

GSW -14.4%

SAS +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAS	NBA	GSW	SAS	NBA
this game	15.7	16.3	15.6	80.8	88.0	102.5
season	15.6	15.9		92.9	100.9
opponent	15.9	15.0		97.2	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
GSW	13.6	17.2	17.8	14.3	15.5	15.7
SAS	17.7	16.3	14.3	20.0	10.4	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	55	56	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.03	11	-19	30	15.3	16.1	-0.75	17.8	14.3	3.50
Gerald Madkins	17	17	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.17	10	-18	28	15.6	15.7	-0.11	20.9	15.3	5.62
Felton Spencer	21	19	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.11	-8	0	-8	16.0	15.6	0.35	16.5	16.2	0.24
Duane Ferrell	10	11	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.12	-10	2	-12	14.7	15.8	-1.09	12.2	16.8	-4.60
Donyell Marshall	73	72	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-4	0	15.4	16.5	-1.06	16.0	16.9	-0.85
Muggsy Bogues	82	84	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.38	4	-12	16	15.5	16.6	-1.17	16.6	14.5	2.12
Tony Delk	15	17	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.13	-14	6	-20	15.9	15.6	0.30	15.3	16.5	-1.19
Clar. Weatherspoon	70	72	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.60	9	-17	26	16.2	14.5	1.69	16.5	15.6	0.93
Jason Caffey	48	48	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	5	-18	15.6	15.7	-0.06	17.1	15.5	1.67
Todd Fuller	15	16	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	4	-16	16.0	15.6	0.38	10.4	17.4	-7.03
Jim Jackson	89	88	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.19	-13	5	-18	15.9	13.8	2.09	15.3	23.3	-8.02

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	78	80	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.23	12	-4	16	16.7	15.0	1.70	16.5	12.1	4.42
Tim Duncan	91	91	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	5	-2	16.4	14.9	1.53	15.2	20.7	-5.52
Monty Williams	67	65	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	2	4	15.9	17.1	-1.26	15.5	16.1	-0.63
Avery Johnson	22	20	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	-1	10	17.7	15.9	1.80	16.7	15.4	1.34
Vinny Del Negro	79	79	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.07	8	0	8	15.9	17.8	-1.94	15.7	15.6	0.03
Brad Lohaus	10	10	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.02	6	2	4	20.1	15.9	4.24	16.2	15.6	0.58
Reggie Geary	33	31	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	9	-10	15.1	16.9	-1.73	15.8	15.6	0.24
Will Perdue	42	41	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	8	-8	15.0	17.2	-2.17	15.8	15.6	0.18
Carl Herrera	12	10	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.10	-3	11	-14	16.3	16.3	0.06	13.4	15.9	-2.53
Jaren Jackson	55	56	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.06	-8	16	-24	18.2	14.0	4.23	15.2	16.3	-1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.28,0.32,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.69,0.62,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.76,0.81,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.91,0.83,0.85,0.73,0.68,0.78,0.83,0.74,0.46,0.45,0.72,0.95,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 111, LAC 114	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.93,0.92,0.81,0.79,0.88,0.93,0.81,0.78,0.67,0.73,0.54,0.47,0.64,0.67,0.96,1	90.4%
CHI 85, UTA 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.73,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.9,0.78,0.57,0.83,0.46,0.45,0.85,0.78,0.83,1	88.8%
CLE 110, CHH 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.74,0.87,0.88,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.89,0.91,0.81,0.72,0.85,0.84,0.46,0.69,0.84,0.83,1,1	88.7%