NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	5.4 [707]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +12.4%
San Antonio Spurs	103		Comeback	1.6 [863]		LVP	David Robinson (SAS): -15.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Lang	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marty Conlon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	3	67%	-0.01	1	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Tim Hardaway	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	16	54%	0.01	2	-0.03	7	100%	0.04
Eric Murdock	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	7	44%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04
Mark Strickland	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.02	-0.05	18	36%	-0.08	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.02
Voshon Lenard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	15	43%	-0.08	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.08	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	11	45%	-0.06	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.00
Terry Mills	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	6	29%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.06	-0.05	20	55%	0.17	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	8	74%	0.09	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	-0.00	0.04	9	75%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Reggie Geary	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	46%	0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Brad Lohaus	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Burton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	7	60%	0.02	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.04	0.03	11	36%	-0.11	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
David Robinson	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.05	-0.02	17	48%	-0.05	4	-0.10	10	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	1.8	25.3	17.4	28.9	1.8	29.4	129.2
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +55.5%

MIA -11.7%

SAS +15.9%

MIA -8.4%

MIA -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	15.9	15.8	15.6	98.9	112.0	102.5
season	15.8	15.9		104.7	100.9
opponent	15.9	16.2		97.2	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.3	16.9	16.1	14.1	15.9
SAS	14.4	15.0	17.3	16.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marty Conlon	45	46	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-14	14	15.5	16.2	-0.78	15.2	16.3	-1.11
Duane Causwell	15	15	0.01	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-15	16	17.7	15.5	2.17	20.8	14.8	5.98
Brent Barry	25	25	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-17	20	17.2	15.3	1.92	15.0	16.1	-1.09
Antonio Lang	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	12.0	16.0	-4.03	12.5	15.9	-3.44
Rex Walters	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	12.0	16.0	-4.03	12.5	15.9	-3.44
Eric Murdock	29	32	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-16	18	16.2	15.7	0.47	14.7	16.4	-1.65
Voshon Lenard	62	62	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	-2	-10	15.5	16.6	-1.04	17.1	13.0	4.10
Terry Mills	41	42	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.15	-10	-4	-6	17.0	14.9	2.10	14.2	17.2	-2.99
Dan Majerle	73	75	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.04	-16	2	-18	16.0	15.4	0.62	15.4	17.4	-1.91
Mark Strickland	74	76	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.06	-18	4	-22	15.1	19.2	-4.05	16.0	14.7	1.26
Tim Hardaway	78	79	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.04	-20	6	-26	15.8	16.2	-0.46	16.1	13.8	2.36

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	81	78	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.01	23	-9	32	16.0	14.2	1.83	15.7	17.2	-1.51
Vinny Del Negro	74	73	0.60	-0.10	0.70	-0.01	21	-7	28	15.9	15.2	0.71	15.7	16.7	-1.05
David Robinson	71	71	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	4	6	16.6	13.1	3.50	15.6	16.6	-0.98
Will Perdue	57	57	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.08	8	6	2	15.4	16.5	-1.12	16.0	15.7	0.30
Jaren Jackson	61	61	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.06	8	6	2	16.1	15.2	0.86	15.4	16.8	-1.38
Monty Williams	57	56	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	9	-4	15.4	16.5	-1.16	16.1	15.5	0.62
Reggie Geary	47	45	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.13	-1	15	-16	15.5	16.1	-0.62	16.9	14.8	2.02
Brad Lohaus	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	14	-14	9.0	15.9	-6.94	12.0	15.9	-3.90
Willie Burton	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	14	-14	9.0	15.9	-6.94	12.0	15.9	-3.90
Malik Rose	3	1	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.04	0	14	-14	14.0	15.9	-1.85	11.0	15.9	-4.91
Carl Herrera	5	6	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	18	-22	14.6	15.9	-1.26	19.2	15.6	3.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.59,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 95, HOU 110	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.81,0.9,0.95,0.91,0.89,0.95,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
NYK 102, MIL 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.98,1	95.2%
SEA 80, POR 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.79,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%