NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	95		Excitement	3.6 [1038]		MVP	Bo Outlaw (ORL): +3.7%
Toronto Raptors	68		Comeback	1.1 [984]		LVP	Oliver Miller (TOR): -19.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bo Outlaw	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.02	7	75%	0.09	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Dan Schayes	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.02	10	55%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Horace Grant	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	13	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mark Price	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	9	56%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Lawson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Derek Strong	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	8	59%	0.02	3	-0.06	6	83%	-0.01
Kevin Edwards	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	13	43%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Derek Harper	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
David Benoit	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	10	30%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.12	-0.00	-0.04	8	25%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.04	17	48%	0.02	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
John Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Garner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	5	18%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	10	45%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.14	-0.01	-0.07	8	30%	-0.06	3	-0.03	4	50%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.01	8	25%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.02	0.02	10	46%	-0.07	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Oliver Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.21	-0.01	-0.02	9	11%	-0.11	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.3	23.5	15.3	23.5	1.6	27.3	114.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +44.0%

TOR -1.2%

ORL +4.0%

ORL +1.7%

ORL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.7	16.3	15.6	105.6	75.6	102.5
season	16.7	15.5		100.3	98.7
opponent	14.8	15.6		108.2	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.6	13.8	19.7	15.7	15.7
TOR	16.7	15.0	17.3	16.3	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Schayes	55	55	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.36	26	1	25	16.0	15.2	0.81	17.1	15.1	2.00
Bo Outlaw	53	55	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	17	-7	16.2	15.0	1.18	17.3	14.6	2.75
Derek Strong	61	61	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.26	19	8	11	15.0	17.2	-2.14	15.8	17.2	-1.37
Horace Grant	57	57	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.12	6	21	-15	16.5	14.3	2.19	16.3	16.2	0.10
Derek Harper	53	51	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.26	18	9	9	17.8	12.8	5.04	15.9	16.8	-0.96
Gerald Wilkins	35	36	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.06	11	16	-5	16.7	15.1	1.67	16.7	16.0	0.79
Kevin Edwards	40	41	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.00	9	18	-9	14.0	17.1	-3.01	16.5	16.1	0.34
Mark Price	43	43	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.18	13	14	-1	14.3	17.0	-2.63	16.9	15.7	1.20
David Benoit	37	35	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.31	17	10	7	15.0	16.2	-1.18	14.6	17.3	-2.75
Kevin Ollie	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	24	-21	13.6	16.0	-2.41	12.9	16.7	-3.77
Jason Lawson	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	24	-21	12.7	16.0	-3.26	13.7	16.5	-2.78

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Garner	11	12	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.23	-8	-19	11	13.9	16.6	-2.70	15.6	15.7	-0.16
Chauncey Billups	35	36	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.04	-7	-20	13	17.2	15.7	1.51	14.0	16.9	-2.87
John Thomas	21	20	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	-24	21	17.2	16.0	1.19	20.3	14.4	5.89
Oliver Miller	62	63	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-23	19	16.9	14.9	2.06	15.8	15.5	0.29
Tracy McGrady	39	42	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.25	-18	-9	-9	15.5	16.8	-1.30	16.1	15.4	0.74
Reggie Slater	61	61	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.15	-15	-12	-3	16.5	15.9	0.61	14.9	17.4	-2.55
Alvin Williams	39	38	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.30	-21	-6	-15	15.2	17.1	-1.94	15.1	16.2	-1.16
Doug Christie	74	72	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.08	-14	-13	-1	16.8	13.7	3.07	15.4	17.1	-1.74
Dee Brown	52	51	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.15	-17	-10	-7	16.1	16.5	-0.34	16.1	15.3	0.78
John Wallace	56	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.44	-28	1	-29	15.6	17.4	-1.82	16.3	14.8	1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.49,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.31,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 127, ATL 110	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
HOU 128, LAC 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.5,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.3,0.31,0.39,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
LAL 106, GSW 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.43,0.53,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.25,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	96.0%