NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	82		Excitement	9.4 [80]		MVP	Martin Muursepp (DAL): +10.0%
Dallas Mavericks	88		Comeback	1.7 [617]		LVP	Donyell Marshall (GSW): -30.9%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Delk	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.03	-0.03	13	50%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Duane Ferrell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Madkins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	13	56%	0.13	5	-0.22	6	67%	-0.01
Jason Caffey	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	10	30%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.13	-0.09	-0.01	7	0%	-0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.24,-0.23,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.25,-0.25,-0.26	-0.15	-0.11	-0.00	23	37%	-0.16	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.27	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.06	-0.18	0.04	10	46%	-0.13	2	-0.14	4	75%	-0.03
Donyell Marshall	-0.31	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.3,-0.3,-0.31	-0.16	-0.15	-0.01	18	32%	-0.24	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Martin Muursepp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.14,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.03	-0.01	11	58%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.07	-0.00	5	58%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.01	8	62%	0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	14	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Khalid Reeves	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	1	25%	-0.05	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Anstey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.02	-0.02	9	11%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bubba Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.11	-0.00	4	50%	-0.05	2	-0.11	4	100%	0.01
Eric Riley	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.13	-0.02	16	44%	-0.14	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.22,-0.35,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.3	-0.30	-0.16	-0.18	-0.04	17	45%	0.01	6	-0.31	6	67%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	21.5	15.6	21.3	1.6	31.3	0.8	16.7	135.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	1.6	18.4	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +44.3%

DAL +1.4%

GSW -0.8%

DAL +3.1%

DAL +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DAL	NBA	GSW	DAL	NBA
this game	15.4	16.3	15.6	82.0	87.1	102.5
season	15.6	15.8		92.9	98.3
opponent	15.5	15.0		104.6	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
GSW	13.4	17.2	17.2	15.4	12.7	15.4
DAL	14.3	17.0	16.3	19.6	13.3	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duane Ferrell	11	12	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-10	14	15.3	15.4	-0.12	10.8	17.0	-6.16
Felton Spencer	14	14	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-4	2	14.1	15.6	-1.44	19.9	15.7	4.18
Gerald Madkins	10	10	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.00	-5	-1	-4	20.1	14.9	5.24	18.4	16.0	2.38
Clar. Weatherspoon	72	75	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.19	0	-6	6	15.1	16.1	-1.06	15.5	18.5	-2.97
Tony Delk	32	34	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.09	-7	1	-8	16.4	14.9	1.56	16.6	16.1	0.45
Jim Jackson	83	84	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.20	-4	-2	-2	14.3	20.4	-6.06	16.2	16.8	-0.61
Muggsy Bogues	76	76	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.44	4	-10	14	15.5	15.1	0.34	16.4	15.9	0.50
Jason Caffey	38	38	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.08	-10	4	-14	16.1	15.0	1.08	18.1	15.1	3.00
Erick Dampier	83	83	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.36	-3	-3	0	15.8	13.1	2.73	16.3	15.8	0.52
Donyell Marshall	81	79	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.30	-7	1	-8	15.1	16.7	-1.68	15.8	18.0	-2.29

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Martin Muursepp	54	52	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.20	16	-10	26	16.9	15.5	1.36	15.1	15.6	-0.51
Eric Riley	65	64	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.27	12	-6	18	16.4	15.9	0.49	15.3	15.5	-0.14
Bubba Wells	49	47	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.65	-1	7	-8	17.9	14.7	3.15	15.1	15.6	-0.56
Hubert Davis	43	43	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.20	13	-7	20	16.6	16.0	0.56	14.5	16.0	-1.52
Shawn Bradley	66	65	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.34	-2	8	-10	17.3	14.3	2.93	15.2	15.6	-0.38
Michael Finley	57	57	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.03	6	0	6	14.5	18.5	-4.01	16.1	14.4	1.69
A.C. Green	56	57	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.03	5	1	4	15.7	16.9	-1.22	15.4	15.4	0.01
Khalid Reeves	39	39	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.07	0	6	-6	14.2	17.5	-3.30	16.2	14.8	1.39
Chris Anstey	52	54	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.11	-8	14	-22	15.9	16.6	-0.73	15.9	14.8	1.07
Erick Strickland	24	22	-0.60	1.10	-1.69	-0.27	-11	17	-28	17.2	16.0	1.19	14.2	15.7	-1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.63,0.71,0.8,0.71,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.85,0.83,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.95,0.54,0.47,0.54,0.85,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 97, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.76,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.84,0.74,0.54,0.55,0.79,0.89,0.96,1	90.6%
PHI 105, MIL 110	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.82,0.83,0.71,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.71,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.68,0.83,0.85,0.95,0.89,0.97,0.95,0.85,0.46,0.61,0.78,0.85,0.73,1	90.5%
MIN 105, UTA 111	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.82,0.74,0.57,0.57,0.71,0.72,0.79,0.88,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.84,0.54,0.39,0.45,0.57,0.59,1	89.8%