NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	84		Excitement	7.2 [351]		MVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): +18.3%
Los Angeles Lakers	91		Comeback	1.6 [716]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -16.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chuck Person	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Burton	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Geary	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	13	62%	0.10	4	-0.11	8	87%	0.01
David Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01	-0.07	0.07	0.02	21	49%	0.12	4	-0.13	5	100%	-0.01
Carl Herrera	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	7	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jaren Jackson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	5	20%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	14	50%	0.01	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.05	0.13	-0.00	5	85%	0.23	2	-0.05	10	80%	-0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	11	54%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	16	55%	0.07	2	-0.05	10	50%	-0.05
Mario Bennett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	10	71%	0.09	5	-0.13	4	75%	-0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.15	0.02	-0.02	15	32%	-0.00	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Robert Horry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	6	39%	-0.13	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.0	29.0	15.6	27.4	3.3	40.5	143.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +15.3%

LAL +1.7%

LAL +12.8%

LAL +16.2%

LAL +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	15.1	16.9	15.6	92.3	102.2	102.5
season	15.9	14.8		100.9	110.0
opponent	15.6	15.9		102.6	97.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.8	19.2	13.8	13.9	15.1
LAL	16.1	14.2	18.3	18.8	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Geary	3	2	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.01	3	-10	13	19.7	15.0	4.68	29.5	16.6	12.93
Will Perdue	32	30	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.08	5	-12	17	15.7	14.9	0.79	15.8	17.4	-1.61
Willie Burton	1	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-7	7	9.0	15.2	-6.21	4.5	17.1	-12.65
Carl Herrera	31	30	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-9	11	14.1	15.7	-1.59	17.1	16.7	0.40
Jaren Jackson	15	16	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.15	3	-10	13	13.6	15.4	-1.85	18.3	16.5	1.76
Monty Williams	44	44	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-6	5	15.1	15.1	-0.01	16.3	17.4	-1.17
Chuck Person	47	45	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.22	-6	-1	-5	15.0	15.3	-0.25	17.4	16.3	1.17
Vinny Del Negro	76	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.14	-10	3	-13	15.4	13.6	1.85	16.5	18.3	-1.76
Tim Duncan	60	59	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.23	-9	2	-11	15.7	14.1	1.59	16.7	17.1	-0.40
David Robinson	59	59	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.22	-12	5	-17	14.9	15.7	-0.79	17.4	15.8	1.61
Avery Johnson	87	85	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.29	-10	3	-13	15.1	15.5	-0.37	16.9	17.0	-0.14

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	76	79	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.22	18	-11	29	16.1	21.5	-5.47	15.3	13.9	1.41
Derek Fisher	78	80	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.21	13	-6	19	16.6	18.7	-2.12	15.1	15.6	-0.56
Eddie Jones	79	81	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.27	9	-2	11	16.8	17.4	-0.60	15.8	10.2	5.55
Elden Campbell	57	59	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	2	3	17.0	16.7	0.28	16.3	13.0	3.26
Kobe Bryant	37	36	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.33	-4	11	-15	20.1	14.6	5.46	14.8	15.4	-0.56
Rick Fox	66	69	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	7	-7	15.8	20.0	-4.23	14.5	17.0	-2.51
Mario Bennett	7	7	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.05	4	3	1	14.0	17.1	-3.11	16.6	15.0	1.55
Robert Horry	45	44	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.04	-10	17	-27	18.1	15.6	2.48	13.3	16.9	-3.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.76,0.63,0.52,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.52,0.63,0.73,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.75,0.93,0.84,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 78, CHH 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.67,0.79,0.83,0.78,0.7,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.73,0.59,0.46,0.68,0.84,0.9,0.96,1	92.2%
DAL 102, HOU 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.76,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.97,1	91.7%
CHI 94, CLE 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.72,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.6,0.78,0.85,0.97,0.94,0.92,1	91.4%