NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	115		Excitement	14.8 [3]		MVP	Doug Christie (TOR): +44.1%
Orlando Magic	107		Comeback	23.2 [22]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (TOR): -52.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0.44	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.44	0.11	0.35	0.02	25	60%	0.47	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.11
Reggie Slater	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	5	71%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Shawn Respert	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Oliver Miller	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.15,-0.09,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	0.02	21	52%	0.20	2	-0.26	4	50%	-0.02
Gary Trent	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	7	35%	-0.08	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	0.00	7	14%	-0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.13,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.07	-0.28	-0.04	12	58%	-0.03	6	-0.28	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.52	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.29,-0.29,-0.38,-0.38,-0.46,-0.52,-0.52,-0.63,-0.62,-0.62,-0.62,-0.62,-0.52,-0.52	-0.17	-0.37	-0.02	16	36%	-0.23	5	-0.29	4	100%	0.07

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Harper	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	-0.03	0.18	-0.01	16	47%	0.20	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
David Benoit	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spud Webb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.05	-0.02	7	57%	0.05	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	17	52%	0.06	4	-0.14	6	83%	0.01
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.11,-0.01,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	11	35%	-0.05	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.05
Dan Schayes	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.07	-0.02	13	30%	-0.15	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.07
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.11	-0.19	-0.00	8	50%	-0.11	5	-0.19	8	50%	-0.08
Horace Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.44,-0.44,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39	-0.39	-0.07	-0.31	0.01	20	48%	-0.04	4	-0.35	2	0%	-0.04
Kevin Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.47,-0.47,-0.47,-0.47,-0.47,-0.47,-0.47,-0.47,-0.47,-0.47,-0.47,-0.47	-0.47	-0.12	-0.35	-0.00	10	35%	-0.12	3	-0.35	3	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2		OT3	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	26.1	16.8	28.3	1.6	40.2	1.5	20.2	1.6	22.0	1.5	11.1	196.7
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	1.6	18.4	1.6	18.4	1.6	18.4	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +2.6%

TOR +58.7%

ORL -31.0%

TOR +27.7%

ORL -8.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	14.7	16.8	15.6	95.8	89.2	102.5
season	15.5	16.7		98.7	100.3
opponent	15.6	14.8		101.4	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
TOR	14.1	14.8	15.0	14.7	15.2	14.7
ORL	17.8	15.9	17.0	17.3	14.8	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dee Brown	76	76	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.29	17	-9	26	14.7	14.6	0.16	16.5	17.4	-0.88
Reggie Slater	32	32	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.24	13	-5	18	13.7	15.0	-1.33	16.2	17.0	-0.80
Doug Christie	92	92	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.30	10	-2	12	14.7	14.8	-0.12	17.1	16.0	1.05
Chauncey Billups	95	96	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.31	6	2	4	14.5	15.4	-0.84	17.0	15.9	1.17
Tracy McGrady	29	29	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	7	-6	13.8	15.0	-1.14	16.0	17.1	-1.02
Gary Trent	64	66	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.36	-8	16	-24	14.5	14.9	-0.31	16.8	16.9	-0.11
Marcus Camby	83	81	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.15	9	-1	10	15.1	13.9	1.20	16.9	16.6	0.29
Shawn Respert	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	8	-8	19.0	14.7	4.34	14.0	16.8	-2.83
Oliver Miller	42	43	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.02	-5	13	-18	15.1	14.5	0.58	17.7	16.3	1.39
John Wallace	75	75	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	-0.18	-3	11	-14	15.0	14.2	0.86	16.8	16.8	-0.02

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Strong	74	74	0.40	-0.90	1.30	0.40	0	-8	8	15.7	18.6	-2.85	14.9	14.4	0.42
Spud Webb	39	41	0.36	-0.86	1.22	0.27	3	-11	14	16.9	16.7	0.21	14.5	14.8	-0.35
David Benoit	18	17	0.22	-0.72	0.95	0.08	5	-13	18	17.2	16.7	0.42	14.4	14.7	-0.39
Kevin Edwards	52	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.06	-6	-2	-4	16.4	17.1	-0.78	14.6	14.8	-0.19
Horace Grant	112	111	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.26	1	-9	10	16.7	18.4	-1.68	14.7	14.2	0.51
Derek Harper	86	85	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.33	-8	0	-8	16.8	16.8	0.06	14.6	14.9	-0.27
Bo Outlaw	100	100	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.29	-11	3	-14	17.0	15.6	1.39	15.1	12.7	2.39
Gerald Wilkins	65	64	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.46	-7	-1	-6	16.6	17.1	-0.45	14.5	14.9	-0.41
Dan Schayes	54	55	-1.16	0.66	-1.83	-0.67	-17	9	-26	18.5	15.4	3.14	14.4	14.9	-0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.9,0.79,0.85,0.95,0.46,0.61,0.55,0.67,0.27,0.54,0.69,0.72,0.33,0.73,0.46,0.19,0.21,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 122, BKN 118	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.62,0.62,0.43,0.52,0.63,0.69,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.79,0.57,0.72,0.54,0.69,0.64,0.57,0.42,0.54,0.39,0.45,0.68,0.92,0.46,0.31,0.22,0.22,0.04,0	85.6%
MIL 88, IND 89	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.7,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.85,0.82,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.66,0.81,0.72,0.84,0.84,1	85.3%
MIN 96, LAC 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.8,0.73,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.92,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.94,0.84,0	85.2%