NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	72		Excitement	3.3 [1081]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +9.1%
Miami Heat	91		Comeback	1.1 [1220]		LVP	Erick Strickland (DAL): -15.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hubert Davis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	9	68%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Martin Muursepp	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Riley	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bubba Wells	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	4	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Michael Finley	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.07	0.00	0.09	18	65%	0.03	2	-0.04	12	83%	0.02
Khalid Reeves	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Anstey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	-0.05	6	19%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	8	35%	-0.04	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Cedric Ceballos	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.03	10	35%	-0.07	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.01
Erick Strickland	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.20	-0.01	-0.06	8	11%	-0.09	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	-0.00	0.02	14	67%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	8	75%	0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	10	55%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	-0.00	-0.08	10	45%	0.03	3	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	1	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.01	-0.05	13	52%	0.04	4	-0.05	5	40%	-0.04
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	0.05	4	70%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.7	26.3	15.4	26.5	2.4	23.3	120.4
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +47.6%

DAL -10.2%

MIA +11.4%

MIA +0.7%

MIA +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.2	17.1	15.6	85.7	108.3	102.5
season	15.8	15.8		98.3	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.5		99.8	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.5	18.5	18.4	15.7	17.2
MIA	15.5	18.4	17.6	17.0	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Martin Muursepp	15	15	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.03	2	-21	23	14.3	17.8	-3.49	19.5	16.6	2.98
Bubba Wells	9	9	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.17	-6	-13	7	17.4	17.2	0.27	15.2	17.3	-2.08
Chris Anstey	41	41	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.00	-2	-17	15	16.0	18.3	-2.30	17.6	16.6	1.08
Eric Riley	10	10	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-15	11	19.3	16.9	2.38	15.0	17.4	-2.36
Khalid Reeves	16	17	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.09	-8	-11	3	18.9	16.8	2.07	16.9	17.1	-0.25
Cedric Ceballos	37	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-14	9	17.5	16.9	0.60	16.8	17.3	-0.54
Erick Strickland	53	51	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.07	-12	-7	-5	16.5	18.4	-1.88	17.2	16.9	0.29
Shawn Bradley	56	55	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.09	-14	-5	-9	17.0	17.5	-0.50	17.3	16.8	0.50
Hubert Davis	58	58	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.02	-13	-6	-7	17.5	16.6	0.85	16.9	17.4	-0.49
Michael Finley	75	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.11	-13	-6	-7	17.2	17.4	-0.27	17.3	15.2	2.08
A.C. Green	50	51	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.06	-20	1	-21	18.4	15.4	3.06	16.5	18.0	-1.51

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	51	50	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.06	20	-1	21	16.5	18.0	-1.51	18.4	15.4	3.06
Alonzo Mourning	49	49	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.09	20	-1	21	16.4	18.0	-1.62	18.5	15.3	3.19
Voshon Lenard	59	60	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.11	20	-1	21	15.9	20.0	-4.10	17.7	15.9	1.80
P.J. Brown	47	46	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.08	17	2	15	17.4	16.7	0.68	18.5	15.6	2.96
Dan Majerle	45	45	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.10	7	12	-5	16.9	17.3	-0.42	17.4	17.0	0.43
Keith Askins	29	30	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.05	8	11	-3	17.3	17.0	0.29	17.4	17.1	0.31
Mark Strickland	45	45	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	18	-17	17.8	16.2	1.64	15.8	18.8	-2.97
Marty Conlon	16	15	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	16	-13	18.1	16.8	1.29	15.7	17.5	-1.87
Duane Causwell	35	35	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	20	-21	18.0	16.4	1.62	15.3	18.5	-3.19
Rex Walters	11	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	18	-17	18.0	16.9	1.05	15.2	17.5	-2.33
Eric Murdock	33	34	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	20	-21	18.0	16.5	1.51	15.4	18.4	-3.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.82,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 82, MIA 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
TOR 99, HOU 114	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.76,0.69,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.88,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
DET 86, WAS 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.63,0.71,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%