NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	85		Excitement	8.7 [136]		MVP	Chucky Brown (ATL): +3.6%
Atlanta Hawks	81		Comeback	1.5 [201]		LVP	Mookie Blaylock (ATL): -48.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Price	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,0.04,0.04	-0.04	0.07	-0.00	12	44%	0.08	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Dan Schayes	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	10	42%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.05
Derek Harper	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.11,-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	16	52%	0.11	1	-0.13	1	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,-0.07,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	6	43%	-0.01	1	-0.07	2	0%	-0.05
Brian Evans	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	5	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Nick Anderson	-0.11	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	0.02	-0.13	0.01	21	58%	0.05	3	-0.15	6	100%	0.03
Derek Strong	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.12	-0.14	-0.02	10	27%	-0.12	2	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	-0.11	-0.00	14	56%	-0.07	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.04	0.01	8	33%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.10	0.00	13	56%	0.05	3	-0.19	6	67%	-0.01
Steven Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.17,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.29	-0.29	-0.16	-0.15	-0.02	25	39%	-0.20	3	-0.09	7	57%	-0.06
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.3,-0.45,-0.48	-0.48	-0.13	-0.34	0.00	15	32%	-0.20	3	-0.28	1	0%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.5	22.4	15.7	28.2	1.7	29.2	124.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +40.6%

ORL +6.5%

ATL -8.4%

ORL +8.2%

ORL +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	15.6	16.1	15.6	94.4	88.0	102.5
season	16.7	16.1		100.3	105.3
opponent	16.0	15.6		101.5	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.8	16.8	18.6	14.5	15.6
ATL	16.5	13.9	15.7	18.3	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Price	69	70	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.47	12	-8	20	15.3	16.4	-1.06	17.1	12.8	4.28
Horace Grant	71	74	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.39	14	-10	24	15.0	17.6	-2.62	16.4	14.7	1.68
Nick Anderson	79	80	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.34	6	-2	8	15.3	17.7	-2.46	16.3	14.3	2.00
Dan Schayes	67	68	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.25	7	-3	10	15.6	15.4	0.18	17.1	13.3	3.77
Bo Outlaw	62	62	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	3	-2	16.2	14.1	2.12	16.7	14.9	1.79
Derek Strong	50	52	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.10	-7	11	-18	16.0	15.1	0.89	15.1	17.4	-2.34
Brian Evans	17	17	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.03	-5	9	-14	15.3	15.6	-0.34	13.1	16.8	-3.70
Derek Harper	35	37	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.04	-8	12	-20	16.2	15.2	0.99	12.9	18.2	-5.24

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Brown	32	29	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.04	0	-4	4	13.6	17.4	-3.85	16.4	15.1	1.30
Drew Barry	14	13	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-3	2	12.9	16.6	-3.71	15.7	15.5	0.15
Chris Crawford	5	5	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	0	-4	19.8	15.9	3.94	16.8	15.5	1.31
Anthony Miller	9	8	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	5	-14	19.7	15.7	3.98	12.9	15.8	-2.95
Steven Smith	80	78	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.42	5	-9	14	15.8	17.9	-2.12	15.9	13.5	2.38
Dikembe Mutombo	84	84	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.40	2	-6	8	16.0	17.0	-1.01	15.9	11.0	4.89
Alan Henderson	82	80	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.44	0	-4	4	15.6	19.7	-4.07	15.3	17.3	-1.95
Mookie Blaylock	82	82	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.40	-5	1	-6	16.6	11.9	4.69	15.5	16.4	-0.89
Tyrone Corbin	72	71	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.37	-8	4	-12	17.4	11.2	6.23	15.0	17.7	-2.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.24,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 93, CHA 85	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.26,0.27,0.36,0.49,0.32,0.28,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.4,0.53,0.39,0.36,0.23,0.01,0	93.1%
MIL 113, MIN 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.3,0.46,0.4,0.29,0.37,0.32,0.1,0	93.0%
NOH 100, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.54,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.23,0.26,0	92.6%