NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	96		Excitement	8.5 [154]		MVP	Rex Chapman (PHX): +26.2%
Orlando Magic	94		Comeback	63.1 [13]		LVP	Mark Price (ORL): -25.6%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rex Chapman	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.26	0.04	0.22	-0.00	13	59%	0.28	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.14
Mark Bryant	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.05	0.00	3	75%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hot Rod Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	6	44%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.02
Steve Nash	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Clifford Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	14	57%	0.05	3	-0.10	12	58%	-0.05
George McCloud	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	4	17%	-0.12	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.01	-0.11	0.01	8	72%	0.04	4	-0.17	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	-0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.07	-0.09	0.01	17	39%	-0.14	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	0.01	13	69%	0.17	1	-0.03	10	70%	-0.00
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	0.00	9	61%	0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dan Schayes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Evans	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	10	42%	-0.05	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.03
Bo Outlaw	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	8	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	13	41%	-0.01	3	-0.08	3	67%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	7	40%	-0.08	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.21,-0.23	-0.23	-0.15	-0.11	-0.02	18	31%	-0.12	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Mark Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.02,0.06,0.08,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.26	-0.26	-0.05	-0.20	-0.00	8	68%	0.17	6	-0.43	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.4	26.6	15.6	27.3	2.6	43.3	142.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +4.6%

PHX +27.6%

ORL -19.8%

PHX +34.9%

PHX +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	ORL	NBA	PHX	ORL	NBA
this game	14.3	17.2	15.6	105.5	102.2	102.5
season	15.0	16.7		105.3	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.9		101.4	100.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	13.1	15.2	16.4	12.5	14.3
ORL	18.2	15.4	17.9	17.5	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	58	59	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.41	10	-8	18	12.9	16.7	-3.79	17.9	15.9	2.02
Rex Chapman	72	72	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.49	6	-4	10	13.7	16.4	-2.74	17.5	16.1	1.35
Clifford Robinson	69	69	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.39	6	-4	10	13.1	18.0	-4.94	17.0	17.8	-0.77
Jason Kidd	80	81	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.47	0	2	-2	14.3	13.9	0.39	17.1	18.1	-1.00
Danny Manning	43	45	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.63	-10	12	-22	14.0	14.5	-0.57	16.7	17.7	-0.93
Hot Rod Williams	26	28	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	4	-6	15.7	13.7	1.96	16.7	17.4	-0.66
Mark Bryant	40	39	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.26	9	-7	16	15.0	13.6	1.38	18.1	16.6	1.51
Steve Nash	36	37	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.08	-1	3	-4	15.9	13.2	2.66	17.2	17.2	-0.07
George McCloud	31	30	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.04	-8	10	-18	17.1	12.8	4.26	15.9	17.8	-1.94

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Evans	7	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-4	6	16.4	17.3	-0.84	17.1	14.0	3.15
Dan Schayes	5	4	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.03	0	-2	2	16.0	17.3	-1.28	12.5	14.3	-1.83
Derek Strong	58	57	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.53	12	-14	26	16.3	18.7	-2.42	14.2	14.4	-0.16
Rony Seikaly	41	42	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.17	-12	10	-22	19.0	15.8	3.15	14.4	14.2	0.19
Darrell Armstrong	48	46	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	2	-6	17.1	17.3	-0.26	14.9	13.6	1.25
Nick Anderson	75	75	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.39	5	-7	12	17.1	17.6	-0.47	14.1	15.2	-1.13
Mark Price	46	45	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.46	4	-6	10	16.6	17.8	-1.15	13.6	14.9	-1.25
Anfernee Hardaway	68	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.44	3	-5	8	16.8	18.5	-1.69	14.2	14.4	-0.26
Bo Outlaw	32	33	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.11	-18	16	-34	19.5	16.0	3.56	14.2	14.3	-0.16
Horace Grant	80	79	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.48	-2	0	-2	17.0	18.3	-1.30	14.3	13.7	0.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.27,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.37,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.38,0.31,0.23,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.73,0.74,0.93,0.95,0.84,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 103, CHA 102	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.23,0.19,0.24,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.14,0.21,0.46,0.43,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.77,0.68,0.93,0.93,0.85,0	91.0%
SAC 93, MIN 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.63,0.69,0.8,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.83,0.84,0	90.7%
BOS 100, PHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.74,0	89.8%