NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Vancouver Grizzlies	110		Excitement	6.5 [469]		MVP	Tracy Murray (WAS): +27.6%
Washington Wizards	112		Comeback	62.7 [36]		LVP	Lee Mayberry (VAN): -19.1%

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Otis Thorpe	0.20	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.2,0.2	0.05	0.13	-0.02	13	70%	0.24	3	-0.04	4	75%	0.06
Sam Mack	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	-0.01	0.00	10	74%	0.11	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.01	11	69%	0.13	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.05
Pete Chilcutt	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.01	4	62%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	70%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio Daniels	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	4	45%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	-0.01
Bryant Reeves	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	9	40%	-0.00	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Blue Edwards	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.14	0.07	-0.20	0.01	9	71%	-0.09	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Lee Mayberry	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19	-0.05	-0.15	-0.01	5	40%	-0.08	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.13	0.15	0.00	15	72%	0.31	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.15	0.15	0.03	0.14	0.02	9	67%	0.20	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.09,0.09,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.07	-0.00	20	53%	0.11	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Ledell Eackles	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	16	55%	-0.01	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Juwan Howard	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.02	21	56%	0.01	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Terry Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	2	37%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	1.8	25.2	15.5	27.4	2.5	37.8	132.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +32.5%

VAN -24.5%

WAS +23.9%

WAS +20.9%

VAN -2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	VAN	WAS	NBA	VAN	WAS	NBA
this game	16.2	14.6	15.6	115.8	121.7	102.5
season	15.1	15.1		101.3	102.8
opponent	15.6	15.3		102.2	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
VAN	15.4	16.4	16.1	17.0	16.2
WAS	14.6	14.9	14.5	14.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Lynch	26	27	0.32	-0.82	1.13	0.08	8	-10	18	16.2	16.2	0.06	16.4	13.8	2.63
Tony Massenburg	23	22	0.22	-0.72	0.95	-0.04	9	-11	20	16.4	16.1	0.32	14.8	14.5	0.30
Sam Mack	52	48	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.05	4	-6	10	16.1	16.3	-0.29	14.7	14.5	0.21
Antonio Daniels	54	51	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.19	-2	0	-2	16.4	16.0	0.42	13.5	15.9	-2.37
Bryant Reeves	69	66	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.13	-1	-1	0	16.7	14.9	1.74	14.3	15.4	-1.17
Pete Chilcutt	28	29	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.53	-1	-1	0	16.0	16.3	-0.32	15.0	14.4	0.65
Lee Mayberry	41	41	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.63	0	-2	2	16.0	16.4	-0.42	15.9	13.5	2.37
Blue Edwards	43	44	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.50	-6	4	-10	16.3	16.1	0.29	14.5	14.7	-0.21
Otis Thorpe	70	67	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.44	-11	9	-20	15.7	17.5	-1.75	14.6	14.4	0.20
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	69	65	-0.82	0.32	-1.13	-0.52	-10	8	-18	16.2	16.2	-0.06	13.8	16.4	-2.63

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy Murray	59	58	0.85	-0.35	1.21	0.47	13	-11	24	14.4	14.9	-0.46	16.8	15.2	1.68
Chris Webber	66	71	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.51	8	-6	14	13.8	16.6	-2.83	16.2	16.2	-0.03
Calbert Cheaney	70	76	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.58	-2	4	-6	15.0	13.3	1.67	15.4	19.4	-3.97
Rod Strickland	84	88	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	-1	4	14.5	15.7	-1.27	16.1	17.0	-0.87
Juwan Howard	87	90	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.49	-1	3	-4	14.8	11.4	3.37	15.9	22.0	-6.13
Ben Wallace	3	4	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	0	2	10.3	14.7	-4.40	10.0	16.5	-6.46
Chris Whitney	8	7	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	3	-4	15.7	14.5	1.27	17.0	16.1	0.87
Ledell Eackles	10	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	3	-4	14.9	14.5	0.35	18.2	16.0	2.25
Darvin Ham	19	18	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.13	-3	5	-8	13.9	14.8	-0.87	16.4	16.1	0.31
Terry Davis	54	54	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	-0.14	-8	10	-18	15.4	13.5	1.85	17.2	14.9	2.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.17,0.2,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.16,0.43,0.59,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 99, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.22,0.3,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.18,0.1,0.16,0.32,0.58,1	94.1%
ATL 93, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.36,0.15,0.43,0.42,1	93.1%
MIA 81, BOS 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.11,0.36,0.43,0.27,1	92.3%