NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	87		Excitement	4.1 [957]		MVP	Derek Harper (ORL): +16.9%
Orlando Magic	96		Comeback	1.1 [810]		LVP	Anthony Mason (CHH): -20.7%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Geiger	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.02	0.00	6	96%	0.15	2	-0.03	11	91%	0.02
Glen Rice	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.02	22	60%	0.13	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
B.J. Armstrong	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	3	75%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
J.R. Reid	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Beck	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Farmer	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Phills	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.04	6	58%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dell Curry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	4	10%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Vlade Divac	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.16	-0.01	-0.06	15	25%	-0.09	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
David Wesley	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	9	33%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.19	-0.03	-0.02	7	11%	-0.14	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.03	-0.01	19	65%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.01	-0.04	15	69%	0.16	3	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Mark Price	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	12	65%	0.08	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Brian Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	56%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	10	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.8	26.6	15.7	23.3	2.0	26.3	119.3
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +43.3%

CHH -4.1%

CHH -6.3%

ORL +16.0%

ORL +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	ORL	NBA	CHH	ORL	NBA
this game	15.5	16.5	15.6	97.8	105.5	102.5
season	15.7	16.7		104.0	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.9		101.4	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	17.1	14.2	18.0	13.0	15.5
ORL	15.6	17.7	15.6	17.0	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Reid	18	20	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.16	3	-12	15	11.2	16.6	-5.34	15.9	16.7	-0.71
Corey Beck	24	25	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.07	-1	-8	7	16.1	15.2	0.88	16.5	16.5	0.02
Matt Geiger	49	52	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.23	4	-13	17	14.0	17.3	-3.39	17.2	15.6	1.65
Dell Curry	31	31	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-6	3	14.2	16.2	-1.93	16.3	16.6	-0.38
Tony Farmer	7	8	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-4	-1	15.1	15.5	-0.37	14.6	16.7	-2.06
B.J. Armstrong	31	33	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-9	9	13.1	16.7	-3.61	16.7	16.4	0.35
Bobby Phills	55	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	-4	-1	16.4	14.0	2.45	16.0	17.4	-1.40
Anthony Mason	53	52	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.00	-11	2	-13	16.6	13.8	2.82	16.1	17.0	-0.91
David Wesley	41	40	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.04	-10	1	-11	16.4	14.7	1.73	16.1	16.8	-0.68
Vlade Divac	61	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	2	-13	17.1	12.0	5.03	17.0	15.3	1.70
Glen Rice	75	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.29	-6	-3	-3	15.5	15.2	0.32	16.8	15.2	1.60

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Harper	79	77	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.17	14	-5	19	16.1	19.4	-3.35	16.0	12.1	3.93
Horace Grant	83	81	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.21	11	-2	13	16.3	18.2	-1.91	15.5	15.5	-0.02
Bo Outlaw	39	39	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.10	14	-5	19	16.0	16.9	-0.84	18.4	13.2	5.26
Mark Price	57	55	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.12	13	-4	17	15.3	18.5	-3.18	16.7	13.4	3.30
Rony Seikaly	83	81	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.19	10	-1	11	16.6	15.4	1.24	15.8	12.4	3.42
Darrell Armstrong	36	36	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.11	-4	13	-17	18.0	15.5	2.43	13.4	16.9	-3.56
Dan Schayes	12	12	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	10	-11	17.0	16.4	0.57	13.8	15.7	-1.91
Brian Evans	54	52	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.19	-7	16	-23	17.1	15.6	1.49	13.3	18.5	-5.23
Gerald Wilkins	12	12	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.06	-5	14	-19	19.4	16.1	3.35	12.1	16.0	-3.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 82, IND 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.56,0.58,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.7%
WAS 101, CLE 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.79,0.77,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.95,0.88,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1	95.4%
UTA 80, NJN 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%