NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	86		Excitement	8.4 [160]		MVP	Pervis Ellison (BOS): +8.2%
Boston Celtics	90		Comeback	2.1 [213]		LVP	Aaron McKie (DET): -19.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerome Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bison Dele	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	0.01	-0.05	0.00	14	58%	0.06	2	-0.11	5	60%	-0.04
Theo Ratliff	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	1	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Grant Hill	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.06	-0.13	0.05	-0.01	12	60%	0.13	8	-0.19	11	100%	0.14
Lindsey Hunter	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.09	-0.02	11	53%	-0.04	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.02
Malik Sealy	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15	-0.04	-0.10	0.01	9	48%	-0.04	1	-0.11	5	60%	-0.03
Aaron McKie	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.13	-0.07	-0.01	5	40%	-0.02	6	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pervis Ellison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.06	0.00	5	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.09	0.04	-0.04	8	33%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ron Mercer	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	15	47%	0.05	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.01
Dana Barros	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	8	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Greg Minor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	10%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.15,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11	-0.11	0.02	-0.11	0.02	23	55%	-0.03	2	-0.08	7	57%	-0.04
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	10	54%	0.01	4	-0.14	4	75%	-0.01
Travis Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	6	33%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	29.4	15.5	25.2	1.8	45.0	141.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +13.7%

DET -11.1%

BOS +10.4%

BOS +40.2%

DET -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BOS	NBA	DET	BOS	NBA
this game	14.7	14.6	15.6	87.8	90.9	102.5
season	15.9	15.1		102.8	100.2
opponent	15.1	15.9		103.0	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.6	15.4	15.9	13.0	14.7
BOS	14.2	12.9	16.8	14.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Theo Ratliff	17	17	0.16	-0.66	0.81	0.07	3	-7	10	15.1	14.6	0.54	16.8	14.1	2.73
Don Reid	9	10	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.07	5	-9	14	12.6	14.9	-2.33	14.3	14.6	-0.30
Jerome Williams	12	12	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.06	-3	-1	-2	19.2	14.0	5.22	14.8	14.5	0.30
Malik Sealy	68	70	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.31	7	-11	18	14.0	16.1	-2.10	14.4	15.0	-0.57
Aaron McKie	64	66	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-3	2	14.4	15.2	-0.77	14.7	14.4	0.26
Grant Hill	71	73	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.43	0	-4	4	14.1	16.2	-2.14	15.3	12.6	2.70
Lindsey Hunter	92	90	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	0	-4	14.9	11.3	3.56	14.4	16.7	-2.31
Bison Dele	72	71	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.40	-11	7	-18	14.8	14.2	0.60	14.2	15.4	-1.15

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ron Mercer	71	70	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.33	8	-4	12	14.3	15.2	-0.90	15.0	14.0	0.99
Chauncey Billups	70	68	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.28	8	-4	12	14.3	15.2	-0.91	15.6	12.6	3.04
Greg Minor	44	43	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.17	11	-7	18	12.5	16.2	-3.64	14.1	15.1	-0.99
Antoine Walker	80	79	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.28	6	-2	8	14.1	16.4	-2.30	15.2	12.4	2.79
Travis Knight	56	56	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.07	11	-7	18	13.4	16.1	-2.66	15.5	13.6	1.85
Walter McCarty	49	48	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.31	-4	8	-12	15.1	14.0	1.14	15.0	14.3	0.68
Pervis Ellison	36	35	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.28	-7	11	-18	16.4	13.5	2.95	12.8	15.7	-2.91
Andrew DeClercq	10	11	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	4	-4	15.9	14.4	1.48	15.4	14.6	0.78
Dana Barros	8	7	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	4	-4	14.7	14.5	0.20	9.9	15.0	-5.19
John Thomas	5	5	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	5	-6	17.6	14.4	3.20	16.6	14.6	2.03
Tyus Edney	22	23	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	7	-10	14.8	14.5	0.27	13.4	15.1	-1.68
Dee Brown	44	45	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.05	-9	13	-22	16.7	12.8	3.89	13.5	15.6	-2.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.57,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.57,0.44,0.32,0.47,0.41,0.73,0.75,0.84,0.95,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 88, CLE 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.77,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.86,0.98,0.98,1,1	92.4%
UTA 85, NOH 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.81,0.99,1,1,1	92.0%
MIN 80, IND 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.63,0.59,0.41,0.54,0.61,0.81,0.78,0.95,1	91.6%