NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	93		Excitement	5.4 [705]		MVP	Ricky Pierce (CHH): +26.8%
Detroit Pistons	85		Comeback	10.0 [61]		LVP	Terry Mills (DET): -10.5%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Pierce	0.27	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.27	0.09	0.14	-0.03	14	67%	0.29	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Mason	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	16	59%	0.11	1	-0.02	7	71%	0.01
Vlade Divac	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	5	80%	0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Donald Royal	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	18	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Matt Geiger	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	11	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Delk	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	10	57%	0.04	4	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.01	19	52%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	6	79%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron McKie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	3	87%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	11	41%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	5	58%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	13	57%	0.00	4	-0.09	9	67%	-0.04
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.07	0.01	11	36%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	19.8	2.5	26.5	16.6	26.4	2.5	29.5	123.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +19.4%

CHH +11.3%

CHH +24.1%

DET -4.7%

DET -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	DET	NBA	CHH	DET	NBA
this game	18.4	16.7	15.6	113.4	103.7	104.4
season	15.7	17.1		108.0	107.6
opponent	16.2	16.0		102.0	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	19.5	19.1	14.6	20.9	18.4
DET	16.5	16.9	17.3	15.9	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Geiger	43	44	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.25	18	-10	28	18.2	18.6	-0.38	16.0	17.5	-1.43
Ricky Pierce	72	72	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.25	16	-8	24	18.7	16.2	2.52	16.4	18.6	-2.16
Anthony Mason	77	78	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.29	8	0	8	18.2	22.2	-4.03	16.9	12.5	4.42
Glen Rice	82	82	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.27	8	0	8	18.4	0.0	18.41	16.7	0.0	16.71
Tony Delk	57	57	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.26	7	1	6	17.8	19.9	-2.17	16.7	16.7	0.04
Muggsy Bogues	25	25	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.00	1	7	-6	19.9	17.8	2.17	16.7	16.7	-0.04
Malik Rose	5	4	-0.09	0.58	-0.67	0.00	-3	11	-14	16.2	18.6	-2.36	16.2	16.7	-0.48
Vlade Divac	34	34	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.01	-7	15	-22	19.0	18.0	0.95	17.6	16.1	1.56
Donald Royal	15	14	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.01	-8	16	-24	18.2	18.5	-0.26	16.9	16.7	0.18

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Otis Thorpe	60	60	0.18	-0.68	0.87	-0.11	10	-18	28	16.4	17.6	-1.27	19.0	16.8	2.24
Michael Curry	10	9	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.01	2	-10	12	16.7	16.7	-0.01	21.2	18.1	3.15
Aaron McKie	25	25	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-7	6	18.0	16.1	1.92	17.9	18.6	-0.71
Theo Ratliff	36	37	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.05	-8	0	-8	16.9	16.6	0.32	17.2	19.4	-2.23
Lindsey Hunter	63	63	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.10	-8	0	-8	16.0	18.9	-2.92	18.3	18.9	-0.62
Terry Mills	51	50	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.34	-4	-4	0	16.7	16.8	-0.11	18.7	17.9	0.83
Joe Dumars	79	79	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	1	-10	16.6	20.7	-4.11	18.3	22.0	-3.72
Grant Hill	76	78	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.29	-8	0	-8	16.7	17.3	-0.68	18.5	16.2	2.28
Grant Long	10	9	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.13	-14	6	-20	20.8	16.1	4.66	17.4	18.5	-1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.79,0.73,0.67,0.52,0.46,0.3,0.35,0.24,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 102, TOR 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.46,0.3,0.29,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.27,0.26,0.06,0.03,0.09,0	92.4%
BOS 111, MIL 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.74,0.85,0.69,0.66,0.56,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.29,0.19,0.21,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	92.3%
DAL 98, MEM 85	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.64,0.5,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	92.1%