NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	97		Excitement	2.0 [1236]		MVP	Hersey Hawkins (SEA): +10.9%
Seattle SuperSonics	123		Comeback	1.0 [1256]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -6.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.02	15	59%	0.06	3	-0.03	4	100%	-0.01
George Zidek	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Allen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	125%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.00
Dale Ellis	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	14	52%	0.02	4	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Brooks Thompson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	9	50%	-0.02	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.11	0.00	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01	5	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Goldwire	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	6	43%	-0.03	2	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	4	67%	-0.01	6	-0.05	4	100%	0.01

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.18	0.00	0.08	11	105%	0.15	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nate McMillan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.06	15	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	22	52%	0.03	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jim McIlvaine	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	4	64%	0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00
Larry Stewart	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.07	11	68%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Ehlo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	7	73%	0.00	1	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Greg Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	3	67%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	8	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	4	20%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.8	23.1	15.8	26.3	1.6	25.4	120.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +21.3%

SEA +0.1%

SEA +3.2%

SEA +21.6%

SEA +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SEA	NBA	DEN	SEA	NBA
this game	14.5	13.8	15.6	96.0	120.6	104.4
season	15.2	14.9		102.3	108.9
opponent	16.2	15.3		100.8	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	15.1	13.6	14.5	14.5
SEA	13.8	14.9	13.1	13.7	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Goldwire	27	29	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.28	11	-37	48	14.3	14.6	-0.33	15.5	13.2	2.29
George Zidek	13	13	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-29	32	14.5	14.5	0.00	11.6	14.2	-2.55
Jerome Allen	24	26	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.30	10	-36	46	12.3	15.2	-2.89	13.0	14.1	-1.13
Tom Hammonds	56	56	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.20	3	-29	32	14.5	14.6	-0.12	14.4	13.1	1.34
Dale Ellis	69	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.54	-33	7	-40	15.1	13.4	1.65	14.4	12.7	1.74
Brooks Thompson	66	66	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.24	-23	-3	-20	15.5	12.7	2.83	13.5	14.4	-0.89
Antonio McDyess	77	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.61	-36	10	-46	14.9	13.4	1.52	13.9	13.5	0.43
Ervin Johnson	59	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.38	-28	2	-30	14.5	14.6	-0.19	13.3	14.5	-1.20
LaPhonso Ellis	75	76	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.31	-28	2	-30	14.3	15.2	-0.83	13.7	14.4	-0.73

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	60	62	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.55	37	-11	48	13.5	14.3	-0.83	15.5	12.9	2.58
Shawn Kemp	64	62	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.45	30	-4	34	13.8	14.0	-0.21	14.6	14.4	0.24
Larry Stewart	66	66	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.42	27	-1	28	13.5	14.4	-0.89	14.5	14.5	0.03
Jim McIlvaine	57	56	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.41	26	0	26	13.5	14.3	-0.80	15.0	13.9	1.12
Hersey Hawkins	55	54	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.31	21	5	16	14.0	13.7	0.26	14.6	14.5	0.08
Sam Perkins	21	23	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.07	9	17	-8	14.8	13.6	1.16	15.1	14.4	0.72
Nate McMillan	36	34	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.04	4	22	-18	14.6	13.4	1.23	13.7	15.0	-1.29
Eric Snow	24	24	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	26	-26	13.5	13.9	-0.45	15.5	14.2	1.27
Terry Cummings	33	34	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.23	-7	33	-40	15.1	13.2	1.89	14.6	14.5	0.17
Craig Ehlo	37	36	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.21	-7	33	-40	13.4	14.1	-0.69	13.5	15.1	-1.65
Greg Graham	12	11	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.20	-7	33	-40	11.4	14.2	-2.75	10.4	15.0	-4.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 70, WAS 87	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.1%
BOS 85, HOU 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.9%
POR 89, MIN 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.83,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	97.7%