NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	89		Excitement	8.5 [169]		MVP	Shawn Bradley (DAL): +60.9%
Sacramento Kings	88		Comeback	3.3 [136]		LVP	Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf (SAC): -14.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Bradley	0.61	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.02,0.09,0.61	-0.03	0.63	-0.01	17	47%	0.66	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Erick Strickland	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.01	12	68%	0.15	3	-0.10	7	57%	-0.07
A.C. Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.05	0.01	6	67%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.03
Martin Muursepp	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	6	67%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Derek Harper	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03	-0.00	-0.04	-0.01	14	55%	0.03	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Jamie Watson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	15	41%	-0.07	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.25,-0.16,0.13	0.13	-0.05	0.17	-0.01	24	48%	0.26	3	-0.13	6	83%	0.03
Olden Polynice	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	15	57%	0.09	1	-0.06	5	80%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	8	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Gamble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	9	44%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	3	25%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	3	25%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.07
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.12,-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.13	0.01	18	55%	-0.08	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.0	1.7	22.3	15.3	24.7	2.7	32.4	120.1
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +70.8%

SAC -6.0%

SAC -16.9%

DAL +1.5%

DAL +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	16.9	16.0	15.6	102.3	100.0	104.4
season	15.9	15.4		99.1	102.4
opponent	15.4	15.7		106.0	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.9	16.1	17.3	16.3	16.9
SAC	15.0	17.4	14.0	18.0	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Bradley	74	75	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.52	5	-4	9	17.0	16.5	0.51	15.7	17.8	-2.05
Erick Strickland	68	68	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.57	1	0	1	17.0	16.4	0.68	16.6	14.0	2.62
A.C. Green	66	66	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.52	2	-1	3	16.8	17.2	-0.45	17.0	13.1	3.91
Derek Harper	76	79	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.55	-2	3	-5	16.9	16.9	-0.01	15.4	21.2	-5.79
Michael Finley	75	76	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.36	-5	6	-11	17.1	15.9	1.14	15.5	19.3	-3.83
Martin Muursepp	12	12	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.06	6	-5	11	14.7	17.2	-2.49	19.8	15.4	4.41
Jamie Watson	30	29	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	-2	5	17.0	16.8	0.21	16.0	16.0	0.02
Samaki Walker	34	35	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.10	-5	6	-11	16.9	16.9	0.07	14.8	16.8	-1.98

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Gamble	13	13	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	3	-7	18.5	15.6	2.95	16.8	16.9	-0.15
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	67	65	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.48	9	-10	19	15.6	17.4	-1.85	17.2	16.1	1.08
Tyus Edney	21	22	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.01	-10	9	-19	17.4	15.6	1.85	16.1	17.2	-1.08
Olden Polynice	77	76	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.33	1	-2	3	15.2	21.9	-6.73	17.1	15.3	1.86
Corliss Williamson	41	43	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	7	-15	18.0	14.3	3.75	16.2	17.6	-1.36
Billy Owens	76	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.50	4	-5	9	15.3	20.4	-5.09	17.2	15.2	2.01
Mitch Richmond	76	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.54	1	-2	3	15.7	18.1	-2.39	16.5	19.2	-2.73
Michael Smith	46	43	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.34	-8	7	-15	17.6	14.3	3.32	17.2	16.6	0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.17,0.14,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.57,0.76,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.28,0.22,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 102, PHX 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.26,0.28,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.54,0.66,0.47,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.41,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.16,0.23,0	93.1%
TOR 95, MIA 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.37,0.26,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.8,0.68,0.59,0.53,0.4,0.31,0.55,0.23,0.09,0	91.8%
DAL 100, MIN 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.26,0.16,0.31,0.26,0.32,0.5,0.43,0.57,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.31,0.07,0.15,0.28,0	91.6%