NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	105		Excitement	2.5 [1190]		MVP	LaPhonso Ellis (DEN): +15.5%
Denver Nuggets	121		Comeback	1.0 [1163]		LVP	Will Perdue (SAS): -4.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Anderson	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	6	61%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.08	0.00	0.09	14	64%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jamie Feick	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	4	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	13	69%	0.03	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.05	12	61%	0.01	1	-0.02	7	71%	0.00
Dominique Wilkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	16	50%	-0.02	1	-0.00	8	100%	0.02
Charles Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	12	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	9	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.30	0.00	0.14	16	95%	0.17	2	-0.02	9	89%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.16	0.00	0.05	20	73%	0.14	2	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.02	16	56%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Thompson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	12	54%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01
Kenny Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	6	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Allen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Zidek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	6	43%	-0.01	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.6	22.0	15.8	23.1	2.6	24.5	117.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +50.9%

SAS -1.4%

SAS -3.3%

DEN +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	18.9	14.6	15.6	120.7	142.4	104.4
season	16.8	15.2		100.8	102.3
opponent	15.3	15.4		108.8	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.5	19.0	20.8	17.4	18.9
DEN	12.8	12.9	16.1	16.9	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamie Feick	22	22	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.24	8	-24	32	17.3	19.4	-2.08	15.0	14.4	0.59
Charles Smith	10	10	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.09	-8	-8	0	18.1	19.0	-0.87	11.4	15.0	-3.59
Greg Anderson	57	56	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.12	-2	-14	12	18.1	20.3	-2.23	15.6	12.6	2.95
Monty Williams	46	44	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.02	-11	-5	-6	18.4	19.4	-0.93	14.8	14.3	0.43
Dominique Wilkins	54	54	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.19	-5	-11	6	19.6	17.6	2.04	14.8	14.1	0.69
Carl Herrera	53	51	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.13	-16	0	-16	18.8	19.0	-0.21	13.6	16.0	-2.44
Will Perdue	40	39	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.04	-13	-3	-10	20.1	17.8	2.27	14.5	14.6	-0.10
Vinny Del Negro	66	64	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.15	-17	1	-18	19.2	18.0	1.21	14.5	14.8	-0.33
Cory Alexander	87	85	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.03	-16	0	-16	18.9	0.0	18.87	14.6	0.0	14.56

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Ellis	79	82	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.12	23	-7	30	14.2	18.8	-4.59	18.6	24.0	-5.44
LaPhonso Ellis	75	77	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.01	18	-2	20	14.7	13.6	1.09	19.7	12.5	7.20
Ervin Johnson	77	79	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.01	16	0	16	14.9	11.7	3.11	19.0	17.9	1.10
Brooks Thompson	55	57	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.14	18	-2	20	14.2	15.2	-1.03	18.7	19.2	-0.55
Tom Hammonds	37	39	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.11	13	3	10	13.2	15.6	-2.48	17.0	20.4	-3.35
Antonio McDyess	60	60	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	14	-12	15.0	13.5	1.48	19.6	17.1	2.50
Kenny Smith	30	30	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.17	-2	18	-20	15.2	14.2	1.03	19.2	18.7	0.55
George Zidek	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	19	-22	15.0	14.5	0.46	12.0	19.2	-7.20
Anthony Goldwire	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	14	-12	10.5	14.7	-4.16	9.5	19.1	-9.59
Jerome Allen	6	5	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.16	-7	23	-30	18.8	14.2	4.59	24.0	18.6	5.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.89,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 101, NYK 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,0.97,0.99,1	97.1%
SAC 81, LAC 116	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.72,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
BOS 89, MIA 115	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%