NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	101		Excitement	5.9 [603]		MVP	Latrell Sprewell (GSW): +13.2%
Los Angeles Lakers	109		Comeback	1.0 [1179]		LVP	Joe Smith (GSW): -12.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Latrell Sprewell	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.15	-0.00	0.01	21	76%	0.27	5	-0.14	7	100%	0.04
Andrew DeClercq	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.01	0.02	4	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	6	50%	0.00	1	0.01	6	67%	-0.02
Todd Fuller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Price	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	9	40%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Scott Burrell	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	5	8%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Mullin	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	0.01	-0.06	0.04	15	67%	0.04	5	-0.13	3	67%	-0.01
Joe Smith	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12	-0.14	-0.02	-0.04	21	27%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.01	17	63%	0.16	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Elden Campbell	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.06	0.00	22	57%	0.14	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.02	0.03	10	78%	0.12	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.03
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	3	100%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	6	68%	0.03	2	-0.03	13	69%	-0.04
Travis Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Byron Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	3	12%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	14	29%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	11	27%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	2.5	26.6	13.7	27.2	2.0	39.1	138.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +24.7%

GSW -3.4%

LAL +21.9%

LAL +1.9%

LAL +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	LAL	NBA	GSW	LAL	NBA
this game	15.5	14.5	15.6	105.2	113.5	104.4
season	15.0	15.3		104.4	105.8
opponent	15.7	15.4		101.5	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.2	15.8	16.0	14.8	15.5
LAL	13.6	13.5	14.0	17.2	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew DeClercq	42	44	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.29	8	-16	24	13.8	16.8	-2.93	15.8	13.4	2.44
Donyell Marshall	38	38	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.13	-2	-6	4	14.8	15.9	-1.19	15.7	13.7	1.97
Scott Burrell	39	37	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-3	-2	13.4	16.9	-3.53	13.9	14.9	-1.02
Chris Mullin	76	76	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	-2	-4	16.2	12.9	3.26	14.4	14.9	-0.48
Todd Fuller	46	46	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	4	-16	17.0	14.1	2.92	13.4	15.6	-2.17
Joe Smith	77	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	-3	-2	16.4	11.9	4.40	14.6	14.1	0.52
Latrell Sprewell	88	89	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.31	-3	-5	2	15.4	15.9	-0.43	14.7	12.9	1.79
Mark Price	74	73	-0.58	0.09	-0.67	-0.15	-15	7	-22	15.4	15.8	-0.44	14.0	16.3	-2.29

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	82	81	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.25	10	-2	12	14.8	13.1	1.61	15.5	15.5	-0.06
Elden Campbell	68	68	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.24	10	-2	12	14.1	15.6	-1.58	15.8	14.8	0.98
Nick Van Exel	87	86	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.32	4	4	0	14.7	13.0	1.68	15.3	17.2	-1.92
George McCloud	18	19	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.06	8	0	8	13.6	14.7	-1.12	16.7	15.2	1.50
Corie Blount	75	75	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.16	2	6	-4	14.7	13.9	0.79	16.3	12.4	3.90
Jerome Kersey	49	46	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.18	0	8	-8	15.6	13.4	2.15	16.3	14.7	1.63
Kobe Bryant	37	38	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	7	-6	13.8	15.0	-1.16	14.7	16.0	-1.27
Travis Knight	11	12	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	4	0	12.9	14.7	-1.82	10.5	16.2	-5.69
Derek Fisher	9	10	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.05	4	4	0	13.0	14.7	-1.68	17.2	15.3	1.92
Byron Scott	16	17	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	9	-10	13.1	14.8	-1.75	13.4	15.9	-2.58
Sean Rooks	28	28	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	10	-12	15.6	14.1	1.58	14.8	15.8	-0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.65,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.74,0.82,0.86,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.95,0.99,0.96,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 93, UTA 110	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.88,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.2%
PHX 97, LAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.95,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1	95.2%
MIA 99, LAL 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.77,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,1,0.97,0.98,1,1	94.8%