NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	106		Excitement	5.6 [667]		MVP	Dell Curry (CHH): +13.4%
Houston Rockets	95		Comeback	1.8 [373]		LVP	Hakeem Olajuwon (HOU): -14.7%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dell Curry	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.03	-0.02	11	71%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Glen Rice	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.03	0.02	17	65%	0.14	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Donald Royal	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	6	71%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Ricky Pierce	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	9	59%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Rafael Addison	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Geiger	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	10	48%	0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Vlade Divac	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	71%	0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	6	57%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tony Delk	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	10	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Elie	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	11	77%	0.13	4	-0.09	8	100%	0.08
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	7	55%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	9	44%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bullard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	13	38%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Randy Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Charles Barkley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	13	50%	0.01	3	-0.10	8	62%	-0.03
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.15,-0.13,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	21	46%	-0.06	4	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	1.8	30.0	16.5	28.5	2.3	29.6	129.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +30.6%

HOU -2.1%

HOU -8.7%

CHH +26.3%

CHH +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	HOU	NBA	CHH	HOU	NBA
this game	16.0	16.1	15.6	117.8	106.7	104.4
season	15.7	15.5		108.0	107.2
opponent	15.4	16.0		103.0	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	16.2	14.5	15.9	17.9	16.0
HOU	13.2	16.1	16.1	19.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Rice	81	80	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.18	12	-1	13	16.0	16.2	-0.20	16.1	16.4	-0.34
Dell Curry	35	36	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.12	12	-1	13	15.2	16.6	-1.43	19.2	14.1	5.09
Muggsy Bogues	67	69	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.17	7	4	3	16.3	15.3	1.05	15.9	17.0	-1.12
Donald Royal	42	40	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.14	8	3	5	16.7	15.4	1.30	16.4	15.9	0.57
Matt Geiger	34	35	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	1	9	17.1	15.4	1.72	16.8	15.7	1.10
Vlade Divac	63	61	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.15	2	9	-7	15.3	17.7	-2.32	16.5	15.3	1.19
Ricky Pierce	47	44	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.06	8	3	5	16.6	15.4	1.24	14.8	17.4	-2.65
Anthony Mason	41	42	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	9	-7	15.5	16.5	-0.98	14.7	17.4	-2.64
Tony Delk	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	11	-11	12.5	16.1	-3.63	8.0	16.2	-8.23
Tony Smith	29	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.13	-5	16	-21	15.8	16.2	-0.42	15.2	16.5	-1.29
Rafael Addison	9	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.01	-1	12	-13	16.2	16.0	0.20	16.4	16.1	0.34

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bullard	9	10	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.01	0	-11	11	16.4	16.1	0.34	16.2	16.0	0.17
Randy Livingston	40	41	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.10	-4	-7	3	15.2	16.9	-1.61	16.5	15.7	0.81
Kevin Willis	34	34	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.04	-6	-5	-1	16.4	16.0	0.45	17.0	15.5	1.49
Charles Barkley	66	66	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-7	3	16.3	15.7	0.59	16.1	15.9	0.17
Matt Maloney	59	59	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	-2	-7	16.9	14.7	2.21	15.4	17.2	-1.75
Sam Mack	79	79	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.20	-8	-3	-5	16.0	17.0	-0.97	16.3	14.5	1.81
Hakeem Olajuwon	78	80	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.13	-12	1	-13	15.9	17.9	-2.02	15.6	19.5	-3.89
Mario Elie	80	81	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.18	-12	1	-13	16.1	16.4	-0.34	16.0	16.2	-0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.35,0.29,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.17,0.09,0.08,0.16,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 107, CHA 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.27,0.27,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	93.9%
PHI 91, WAS 84	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.72,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.32,0.38,0.24,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0	93.8%
CHI 83, MIL 75	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	93.8%