NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	84		Excitement	4.1 [959]		MVP	Billy Owens (SAC): +3.0%
Sacramento Kings	95		Comeback	1.4 [857]		LVP	Olden Polynice (SAC): -9.0%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tom Gugliotta	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	22	56%	0.08	5	-0.07	6	100%	0.02
Cherokee Parks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Dean Garrett	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	18	50%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	1	83%	0.01	4	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Chris Carr	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stojko Vrankovic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Doug West	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	21	48%	-0.01	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Sam Mitchell	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.02	-0.01	13	59%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.10	24	38%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	0.01
Kevin Gamble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	15	48%	0.03	3	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Jeff Grayer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Michael Smith	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	7	14%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Olden Polynice	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	-0.02	-0.06	20	39%	-0.05	3	-0.04	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	1.8	24.2	16.4	21.5	2.4	32.4	125.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +14.3%

SAC +3.6%

SAC +22.5%

SAC +7.7%

SAC +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAC	NBA	MIN	SAC	NBA
this game	14.5	14.9	15.6	86.6	96.0	104.4
season	15.5	15.4		103.3	102.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		106.0	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.0	15.6	16.5	10.2	14.5
SAC	12.3	12.1	17.8	17.9	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dean Garrett	34	36	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-16	21	16.1	13.6	2.53	16.1	14.2	1.85
Chris Carr	11	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-7	3	15.1	14.4	0.66	9.1	15.5	-6.43
Cherokee Parks	5	4	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.07	-6	-5	-1	17.0	14.4	2.63	10.5	15.1	-4.56
Terry Porter	25	23	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.04	-6	-5	-1	13.5	14.9	-1.38	14.4	15.0	-0.64
Stojko Vrankovic	20	20	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	-1	-9	15.2	14.3	0.94	11.2	15.8	-4.61
James Robinson	38	39	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.13	-3	-8	5	12.6	15.8	-3.21	15.7	14.3	1.43
Doug West	48	50	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	-7	3	15.9	13.1	2.79	15.4	14.4	0.97
Stephon Marbury	72	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-6	1	14.9	13.5	1.38	15.0	14.4	0.64
Kevin Garnett	86	89	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.29	-1	-10	9	14.4	15.0	-0.56	15.4	10.6	4.76
Sam Mitchell	52	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-3	-5	13.4	15.8	-2.42	14.6	15.2	-0.67
Tom Gugliotta	94	95	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.13	-13	2	-15	14.3	21.0	-6.70	15.1	9.2	5.87

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Billy Owens	71	70	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.05	15	-4	19	15.0	14.6	0.33	14.3	14.9	-0.58
Mitch Richmond	88	87	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.12	11	0	11	14.6	16.9	-2.28	14.5	14.7	-0.22
Olden Polynice	76	74	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.18	7	4	3	15.1	14.3	0.75	15.0	12.8	2.20
Kevin Gamble	32	31	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.14	17	-6	23	13.8	15.4	-1.53	15.0	14.3	0.77
Tyus Edney	38	37	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	1	9	14.7	15.0	-0.36	14.7	14.4	0.32
Michael Smith	75	74	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.21	1	10	-9	14.3	16.8	-2.52	14.8	13.6	1.18
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	64	63	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.15	3	8	-5	15.4	13.9	1.54	14.5	14.6	-0.08
Corliss Williamson	43	42	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.23	-7	18	-25	16.3	13.8	2.43	13.0	15.7	-2.70
Jeff Grayer	8	7	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.08	-2	13	-15	14.4	14.9	-0.55	14.0	14.5	-0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.7,0.65,0.58,0.71,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.97,0.9,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 105, DEN 114	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.6%
CHI 91, GSW 99	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	96.3%
ORL 95, NYK 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.79,0.8,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%