NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	91		Excitement	3.3 [920]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +12.5%
Golden State Warriors	99		Comeback	1.2 [310]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (CHI): -7.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	15	69%	0.10	4	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Kyle Korver	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.08	0.00	0.06	6	79%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Omer Asik	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	0.00	0.04	10	54%	-0.01	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.05
Taj Gibson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	3	62%	0.02	4	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	7	43%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	7	44%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick Rose	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.13	0.00	-0.05	17	34%	-0.02	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	12	42%	-0.03	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.01	-0.04	17	65%	0.17	3	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Stephen Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	-0.00	-0.04	12	68%	0.15	4	-0.06	7	86%	0.01
David Lee	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.00	16	55%	0.07	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	0.00	0.03	10	65%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.07	6	42%	0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.5	34.9	15.6	23.6	2.4	37.2	138.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +29.2%

GSW +11.4%

CHI -6.7%

GSW +18.6%

CHI -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	GSW	NBA	CHI	GSW	NBA
this game	14.7	15.5	15.6	95.8	103.1	102.8
season	16.0	15.2		104.7	103.6
opponent	15.4	15.9		106.8	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.7	14.2	15.8	13.2	14.7
GSW	14.3	14.6	17.7	15.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Korver	34	35	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.23	2	-10	12	14.6	14.7	-0.09	14.6	16.0	-1.38
Richard Hamilton	47	49	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-6	4	14.6	14.8	-0.20	16.3	14.6	1.73
CJ Watson	40	40	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.24	1	-9	10	14.5	14.8	-0.34	14.6	16.1	-1.51
Taj Gibson	44	44	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.20	-1	-7	6	14.5	14.8	-0.28	14.8	16.1	-1.30
Joakim Noah	50	50	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-2	-4	14.6	14.7	-0.11	16.1	14.8	1.38
Omer Asik	20	20	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.12	-13	5	-18	16.6	14.2	2.44	14.2	15.8	-1.55
Carlos Boozer	51	52	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.07	-7	-1	-6	14.8	14.5	0.28	16.1	14.8	1.30
Luol Deng	82	83	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.33	1	-9	10	14.2	17.8	-3.68	15.7	14.2	1.44
Derrick Rose	77	79	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.34	1	-9	10	14.2	16.9	-2.73	16.0	12.9	3.08
Ronnie Brewer	30	28	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.15	-16	8	-24	16.7	13.8	2.91	13.9	16.1	-2.19

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kwame Brown	48	46	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.11	21	-13	34	15.5	15.4	0.12	14.8	14.6	0.17
Brandon Rush	55	54	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.12	11	-3	14	14.6	16.6	-2.02	14.7	14.7	0.03
Stephen Curry	71	71	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.11	11	-3	14	16.0	14.0	2.00	15.4	12.5	2.96
Monta Ellis	75	73	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.28	0	8	-8	15.8	14.2	1.59	14.3	15.8	-1.49
Ekpe Udoh	26	25	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.08	12	-4	16	14.4	15.9	-1.50	17.0	13.9	3.10
David Lee	70	69	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.35	-4	12	-16	15.9	14.4	1.50	14.0	16.4	-2.36
Klay Thompson	19	21	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.03	8	0	8	15.4	15.5	-0.07	16.3	14.2	2.13
Dorell Wright	68	66	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.41	-12	20	-32	15.9	14.4	1.53	13.7	16.8	-3.05
Ish Smith	9	10	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	8	-8	12.1	15.8	-3.72	14.9	14.6	0.25
Andris Biedrins	25	27	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.04	-1	9	-10	15.7	15.4	0.33	15.9	14.2	1.70
Dominic McGuire	14	13	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.19	-6	14	-20	13.8	15.8	-1.98	10.5	15.3	-4.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 76, IND 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
WAS 96, MIL 123	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.79,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.92,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
LAC 90, HOU 115	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%