NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	87		Excitement	7.5 [322]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +27.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	92		Comeback	2.0 [674]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): -31.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryant Stith	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.15,0.16	0.06	0.11	0.01	13	65%	0.19	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.13
Kenny Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Thompson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.02	5	67%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.04
Tom Hammonds	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	15	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ricky Pierce	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	4	60%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.07
Dale Ellis	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	11	27%	-0.11	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Mark Jackson	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.05	-0.02	7	44%	-0.01	6	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.09,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.19,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22	-0.14	-0.09	-0.01	19	50%	-0.02	7	-0.20	6	67%	-0.04

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.02,0.14,0.28	0.28	0.08	0.20	0.00	9	75%	0.39	1	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.05	-0.03	11	50%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.07	0.00	9	61%	0.16	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wolf	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	14	58%	0.08	3	-0.09	8	62%	-0.02
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
David Wood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	9	46%	-0.04	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.03
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.21	-0.14	-0.03	18	37%	-0.16	7	-0.15	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.4	24.1	15.7	22.5	1.7	43.6	132.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +35.5%

DEN -2.8%

MIL +8.8%

MIL +5.2%

MIL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIL	NBA	DEN	MIL	NBA
this game	14.0	16.0	15.6	90.6	95.8	104.4
season	15.2	16.0		102.3	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.3		106.0	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.9	16.1	13.8	14.4	14.0
MIL	15.8	15.2	15.0	18.3	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Jackson	68	67	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.14	1	-6	7	13.2	15.9	-2.65	15.3	17.8	-2.49
Antonio McDyess	65	66	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.31	6	-11	17	13.4	15.3	-1.89	16.1	15.9	0.18
Kenny Smith	7	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.07	-7	2	-9	18.1	13.7	4.49	14.2	16.2	-1.93
Ervin Johnson	79	77	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.29	4	-9	13	13.9	14.3	-0.38	16.9	12.4	4.49
Tom Hammonds	15	15	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	3	-11	15.9	13.6	2.24	11.2	16.9	-5.71
Ricky Pierce	17	16	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.06	-6	1	-7	17.8	13.2	4.60	17.6	15.7	1.92
Bryant Stith	79	80	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.30	1	-6	7	13.2	17.8	-4.60	15.7	17.6	-1.92
Brooks Thompson	22	21	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-4	3	14.4	13.9	0.56	19.1	15.1	4.00
LaPhonso Ellis	87	87	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.27	-7	2	-9	14.1	13.1	0.96	16.2	14.1	2.11
Dale Ellis	41	43	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.27	-8	3	-11	14.5	13.6	0.97	15.6	16.4	-0.75

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sherman Douglas	63	61	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.39	5	0	5	15.8	16.5	-0.75	13.8	14.4	-0.62
Vin Baker	86	87	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.27	4	1	3	16.6	11.0	5.60	14.4	9.7	4.76
Armen Gilliam	75	77	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.26	3	2	1	15.3	18.5	-3.14	14.1	13.4	0.76
Johnny Newman	43	43	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.16	6	-1	7	15.3	16.6	-1.26	13.4	14.5	-1.06
Ray Allen	58	59	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.33	0	5	-5	16.1	15.8	0.30	13.7	14.4	-0.74
Glenn Robinson	74	76	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.29	-2	7	-9	15.4	18.0	-2.57	13.9	14.2	-0.34
David Wood	21	18	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.06	9	-4	13	16.4	15.9	0.46	14.1	14.0	0.09
Joe Wolf	21	19	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	3	-1	18.5	15.3	3.14	13.4	14.1	-0.76
Chucky Brown	6	5	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.07	-2	7	-9	17.5	15.9	1.58	15.4	13.9	1.50
Elliot Perry	33	35	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.03	0	5	-5	16.5	15.8	0.75	14.4	13.8	0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.67,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.9,0.79,0.55,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 98, ATL 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.62,0.57,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.86,0.88,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.67,0.84,1	92.0%
PHX 84, NJN 86	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.75,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.68,0.74,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.55,0.68,0.58,1	91.7%
CLE 91, ATL 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.76,0.87,0.92,0.78,0.9,0.58,1	91.6%