NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	107		Excitement	2.5 [1198]		MVP	Steven Smith (ATL): +18.9%
Golden State Warriors	85		Comeback	1.1 [1142]		LVP	Bimbo Coles (GSW): -5.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.23	0.00	0.04	20	78%	0.19	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.04	17	62%	0.11	3	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Mookie Blaylock	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	14	68%	0.07	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	62%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ivano Newbill	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Priest Lauderdale	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donnie Boyce	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Corbin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	6	14%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Ken Norman	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	7	14%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eldridge Recasner	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	0.00	0.06	4	70%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	7	39%	-0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donald Royal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	15	47%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.05	8	65%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Lou Roe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	2	17%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	18	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Felton Spencer	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.03
B.J. Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	10	45%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Owes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	5	42%	-0.01	2	-0.01	2	50%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0.03	10	55%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	0.01	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.6	23.3	15.6	25.3	1.7	23.4	113.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +26.7%

ATL +4.2%

ATL +8.8%

ATL +8.0%

ATL +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	GSW	NBA	ATL	GSW	NBA
this game	17.4	16.1	15.6	124.4	98.8	104.4
season	16.4	15.0		105.3	104.4
opponent	15.4	16.0		109.1	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.4	16.4	21.2	16.3	17.4
GSW	17.1	14.9	17.7	15.0	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Laettner	67	66	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.11	18	4	14	17.9	15.7	2.24	16.3	15.3	0.99
Steven Smith	64	63	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.15	19	3	16	17.9	16.0	1.86	16.1	15.9	0.20
Tyrone Corbin	59	58	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.09	16	6	10	18.5	15.0	3.49	16.6	15.0	1.62
Mookie Blaylock	60	62	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.05	14	8	6	17.7	16.7	1.06	16.5	14.9	1.58
Ivano Newbill	19	19	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.14	15	7	8	15.7	17.9	-2.24	16.4	16.0	0.47
Eldridge Recasner	41	41	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.07	10	12	-2	17.0	17.9	-0.92	15.7	16.4	-0.67
Dikembe Mutombo	58	58	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.05	5	17	-12	18.9	14.5	4.40	16.2	15.8	0.40
Ken Norman	23	23	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	18	-14	15.9	18.0	-2.13	14.6	16.6	-2.04
Jon Barry	25	26	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.05	5	17	-12	14.2	18.8	-4.61	14.2	16.8	-2.62
Priest Lauderdale	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	20	-18	13.1	17.8	-4.67	16.4	16.0	0.40
Donnie Boyce	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	20	-18	13.1	17.8	-4.67	16.4	16.0	0.40

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lou Roe	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-20	18	16.4	16.0	0.40	13.1	17.8	-4.67
Todd Fuller	30	30	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.05	0	-22	22	15.3	16.4	-1.11	16.6	17.9	-1.33
Ray Owes	16	16	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.09	-5	-17	12	12.9	16.8	-3.83	12.7	18.5	-5.75
Donyell Marshall	4	4	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-19	16	22.7	15.7	7.02	23.2	17.1	6.10
Donald Royal	12	12	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.07	-6	-16	10	15.1	16.2	-1.13	16.7	17.6	-0.89
Andrew DeClercq	9	9	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.10	-9	-13	4	19.7	15.6	4.03	18.9	17.3	1.63
B.J. Armstrong	58	58	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.05	-9	-13	4	16.0	16.2	-0.18	16.8	18.7	-1.96
Felton Spencer	38	38	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.07	-10	-12	2	17.2	15.2	1.97	18.9	16.2	2.72
Bimbo Coles	43	42	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.10	-13	-9	-4	16.0	16.1	-0.07	17.3	17.6	-0.28
Joe Smith	67	67	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.02	-14	-8	-6	16.2	15.6	0.62	18.0	15.4	2.65
Chris Mullin	67	68	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.12	-19	-3	-16	15.7	17.2	-1.48	17.7	16.3	1.39
Latrell Sprewell	79	79	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.09	-20	-2	-18	16.0	16.4	-0.40	17.8	13.1	4.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.16,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 106, VAN 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%
NOH 105, OKC 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.33,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
DEN 106, HOU 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.11,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.14,0.13,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%