NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	106		Excitement	6.3 [519]		MVP	Mark Bryant (PHX): +19.5%
Detroit Pistons	97		Comeback	1.3 [205]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -24.2%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Bryant	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.07	-0.01	10	87%	0.28	2	-0.08	4	75%	0.01
Wesley Person	0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	13	64%	0.15	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Steve Nash	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	10	70%	0.11	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Rumeal Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	18	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Loren Meyer	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hot Rod Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	8	52%	-0.02	2	-0.05	5	20%	-0.09
Kevin Johnson	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	8	52%	0.05	4	-0.14	9	67%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	11	64%	0.13	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	15	71%	0.17	4	-0.13	8	62%	-0.05
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	8	74%	0.11	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Michael Curry	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.02	0.02	10	64%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.10	0.03	-0.07	16	32%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Randolph Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.11	-0.11	0.02	14	52%	-0.07	6	-0.17	5	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.4	23.5	16.7	25.2	1.7	29.4	123.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +35.7%

DET -7.5%

PHX +19.0%

DET -0.7%

PHX +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	DET	NBA	PHX	DET	NBA
this game	16.1	15.7	15.6	116.5	107.8	104.4
season	14.6	17.1		106.8	107.6
opponent	16.2	15.6		102.0	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	13.7	18.0	17.9	15.3	16.1
DET	15.1	16.3	14.8	16.7	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Johnson	81	80	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.21	12	-3	15	16.0	17.1	-1.11	15.3	19.3	-4.04
Wesley Person	81	80	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.21	12	-3	15	16.0	17.1	-1.11	15.3	19.3	-4.04
Mark Bryant	52	51	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.23	10	-1	11	17.5	14.3	3.24	16.9	14.2	2.66
Danny Manning	59	58	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.22	10	-1	11	16.1	16.1	0.02	16.4	14.5	1.93
Cedric Ceballos	64	63	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.22	6	3	3	15.6	17.4	-1.84	15.1	17.1	-2.05
Loren Meyer	31	31	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.03	5	4	1	15.4	16.5	-1.10	14.9	16.1	-1.23
Rumeal Robinson	12	13	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.07	-2	11	-13	15.5	16.2	-0.70	17.3	15.4	1.87
Steve Nash	15	15	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	12	-15	13.2	16.7	-3.48	15.5	15.7	-0.21
Hot Rod Williams	60	59	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.01	-5	14	-19	17.0	14.3	2.71	16.0	15.1	0.94

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron McKie	34	34	0.17	-0.67	0.85	0.03	5	-14	19	16.2	15.4	0.75	17.1	15.5	1.56
Terry Mills	47	45	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.09	7	-16	23	15.9	15.6	0.29	16.3	16.0	0.31
Randolph Childress	11	13	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.07	3	-12	15	13.8	16.0	-2.16	11.7	16.8	-5.15
Michael Curry	3	3	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-7	5	5.7	16.1	-10.39	7.0	16.4	-9.42
Lindsey Hunter	75	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	-3	-3	15.3	17.9	-2.67	15.7	18.1	-2.37
Otis Thorpe	77	79	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.19	-9	0	-9	16.2	12.8	3.35	16.7	12.2	4.45
Grant Hill	77	76	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.23	-12	3	-15	15.5	17.2	-1.69	16.0	16.5	-0.43
Joe Dumars	74	76	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.18	-15	6	-21	16.4	12.3	4.13	16.7	13.1	3.64
Theo Ratliff	52	54	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.18	-16	7	-23	15.5	16.0	-0.50	15.9	16.4	-0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.36,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.48,0.34,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.2,0.07,0.08,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 94, PHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.52,0.42,0.31,0.16,0.17,0.1,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.0%
MIA 113, TOR 101	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.37,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.33,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.2,0.1,0.05,0,0,0,0	93.0%
SAS 84, MIA 77	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.48,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.02,0	92.6%