NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	91		Excitement	7.5 [319]		MVP	Kevin Gamble (SAC): +22.9%
Minnesota Timberwolves	88		Comeback	13.0 [46]		LVP	Tom Gugliotta (MIN): -35.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Gamble	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.03	0.20	-0.00	7	59%	0.23	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.06
Mitch Richmond	0.08	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08	0.04	0.06	0.02	19	65%	0.20	5	-0.13	5	100%	0.07
Jeff Grayer	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	-0.08	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	8	50%	0.02	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	10	30%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Edney	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	5	58%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Olden Polynice	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.18,-0.18	-0.05	-0.14	-0.00	18	42%	-0.03	1	-0.15	2	0%	-0.04
Corliss Williamson	-0.35	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.35	-0.09	-0.27	-0.01	15	40%	-0.14	3	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Heal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	9	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	-0.02	16	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Doug West	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	13	48%	0.02	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.01
James Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.07	-0.01	10	61%	0.13	4	-0.22	3	67%	-0.01
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.35	-0.35	-0.02	-0.33	0.01	21	57%	-0.20	5	-0.15	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.4	2.4	23.8	15.0	25.3	2.4	38.2	127.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +29.0%

SAC +4.0%

SAC +38.5%

MIN -19.1%

MIN -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIN	NBA	SAC	MIN	NBA
this game	15.8	15.5	15.6	97.8	96.7	104.4
season	15.4	15.5		102.4	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.4		105.3	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.4	18.0	17.3	13.2	15.8
MIN	14.0	14.7	17.0	16.3	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corliss Williamson	63	62	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.44	13	-10	23	15.1	17.3	-2.22	15.0	16.4	-1.38
Mitch Richmond	83	82	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.38	14	-11	25	15.6	17.6	-1.99	15.7	13.0	2.74
Olden Polynice	73	73	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.45	10	-7	17	15.8	15.9	-0.09	15.8	14.2	1.56
Tyus Edney	26	25	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.36	5	-2	7	15.7	15.9	-0.24	15.7	15.4	0.34
Kevin Gamble	52	49	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	0	3	15.6	16.1	-0.53	16.8	14.0	2.82
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	64	63	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.06	-2	5	-7	16.2	14.9	1.30	15.7	14.9	0.84
Jeff Grayer	13	12	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.14	-11	14	-25	15.5	15.9	-0.34	11.7	16.0	-4.29
Michael Smith	74	72	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.07	-6	9	-15	15.9	15.4	0.58	15.2	16.6	-1.46
Duane Causwell	17	17	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	0.02	-11	14	-25	18.8	15.2	3.59	13.3	16.0	-2.68

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dean Garrett	52	52	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.12	-1	-2	1	15.9	14.9	0.96	16.2	15.3	0.87
James Robinson	16	15	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.16	7	-10	17	14.6	15.7	-1.10	15.1	16.0	-0.91
Cherokee Parks	13	15	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-4	5	14.4	15.7	-1.27	18.1	15.4	2.67
Shane Heal	27	28	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.05	-6	3	-9	17.1	14.8	2.33	15.2	16.1	-0.88
Terry Porter	66	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-6	9	14.5	18.1	-3.60	15.9	15.6	0.33
Tom Gugliotta	76	76	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.41	-2	-1	-1	15.6	14.8	0.81	15.4	17.9	-2.51
Kevin Garnett	78	81	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.48	-1	-2	1	14.5	21.3	-6.81	15.7	16.5	-0.77
Sam Mitchell	52	54	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.34	-6	3	-9	17.0	13.4	3.56	15.8	15.8	0.01
Doug West	75	78	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.25	-10	7	-17	15.7	14.6	1.10	16.0	15.1	0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.69,0.79,0.45,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 99, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.74,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.9,0.75,0.78,0.33,0.27,0	91.3%
GSW 82, POR 78	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.62,0.72,0.57,0.15,0	90.7%
UTA 88, ORL 86	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.6,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.28,0	90.6%