NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	111		Excitement	7.4 [343]		MVP	Loy Vaught (LAC): +35.6%
Los Angeles Clippers	114		Comeback	1.3 [870]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -20.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.17,0.17	0.18	0.01	0.02	18	71%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.05	-0.00	-0.01	19	56%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Kenny Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	4	70%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Pierce	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Mark Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	0.04	9	64%	-0.00	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Bryant Stith	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	10	45%	-0.00	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Tom Hammonds	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21	-0.10	-0.11	-0.00	11	51%	-0.13	3	-0.07	13	62%	-0.13

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Loy Vaught	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.21	0.15	0.01	18	84%	0.43	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	0.00	10	69%	0.10	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Lamond Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	0.00	2	86%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Dehere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	67%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	10	71%	0.11	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.01
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.01	-0.02	13	40%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	3	25%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Darrick Martin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	12	38%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Malik Sealy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	9	38%	-0.14	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.3	1.7	28.1	15.6	30.0	1.8	36.4	143.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +21.6%

LAC +10.5%

LAC +3.2%

LAC +11.1%

LAC +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAC	NBA	DEN	LAC	NBA
this game	14.9	15.2	15.6	115.6	120.0	104.4
season	15.2	15.8		102.3	102.9
opponent	15.1	15.3		105.8	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.7	18.5	15.0	12.0	14.9
LAC	14.1	14.2	15.0	17.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ricky Pierce	29	31	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.12	3	-6	9	14.8	15.0	-0.21	16.6	14.5	2.07
Kenny Smith	31	28	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.34	9	-12	21	13.9	15.4	-1.53	16.4	14.7	1.66
Tom Hammonds	51	48	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.42	11	-14	25	14.6	15.3	-0.62	16.0	14.4	1.62
Antonio McDyess	60	57	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.27	5	-8	13	15.0	14.8	0.17	17.1	12.3	4.80
Dale Ellis	57	58	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.37	1	-4	5	13.7	16.7	-3.04	14.9	15.7	-0.74
Bryant Stith	55	55	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.02	-11	8	-19	15.8	13.8	1.93	14.3	16.5	-2.30
LaPhonso Ellis	61	62	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.17	-10	7	-17	15.0	14.8	0.26	14.0	17.4	-3.38
Ervin Johnson	59	60	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.00	-16	13	-29	16.2	12.9	3.33	14.2	16.9	-2.64
Mark Jackson	77	76	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.34	-7	4	-11	14.8	15.4	-0.60	14.9	16.4	-1.50

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Rogers	70	70	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.31	15	-12	27	15.1	15.6	-0.51	14.2	17.0	-2.88
Malik Sealy	67	67	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.26	12	-9	21	15.4	14.7	0.67	14.2	16.6	-2.36
Brent Barry	59	60	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.42	3	0	3	14.8	15.9	-1.12	14.5	15.6	-1.08
Bo Outlaw	66	66	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.23	7	-4	11	14.7	16.4	-1.72	15.7	13.3	2.33
Loy Vaught	89	90	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.42	-1	4	-5	15.2	16.2	-1.01	14.7	18.7	-3.98
Lorenzen Wright	26	27	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	4	-5	17.2	14.5	2.66	14.4	15.1	-0.69
Lamond Murray	13	14	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	3	-3	13.8	15.4	-1.59	18.3	14.4	3.92
Terry Dehere	16	16	-0.04	0.53	-0.57	0.08	-4	7	-11	13.5	15.6	-2.07	18.4	14.2	4.20
Darrick Martin	51	52	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.15	-8	11	-19	15.7	14.7	1.00	14.6	15.4	-0.79
Eric Piatkowski	18	18	-0.19	0.68	-0.87	0.05	-8	11	-19	17.1	14.8	2.26	16.6	14.6	2.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.75,0.7,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.78,0.8,0.76,0.8,0.9,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.8,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 82, MIL 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.86,0.8,0.89,0.9,0.95,1	93.3%
DET 73, IND 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.81,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.86,0.81,0.84,0.81,0.93,0.94,0.98,1	93.3%
BOS 83, IND 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.66,0.72,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.89,0.94,0.97,1,1	93.1%