NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	92		Excitement	7.2 [369]		MVP	Mitch Richmond (SAC): +31.1%
Sacramento Kings	97		Comeback	2.2 [663]		LVP	Lindsey Hunter (DET): -28.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Otis Thorpe	0.13	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.06	0.01	12	71%	0.17	1	-0.04	10	80%	0.02
Litterial Green	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	2	83%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Grant Hill	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01	-0.04	0.05	0.00	27	52%	0.12	4	-0.12	9	100%	0.07
Jerome Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Mills	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Theo Ratliff	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	3	56%	0.00	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.06	0.01	8	63%	0.01	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
Lindsey Hunter	-0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.28,-0.28	-0.14	-0.15	-0.01	11	9%	-0.28	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.3,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.31	0.31	0.12	0.20	0.01	20	68%	0.36	2	-0.05	16	94%	0.13
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	19	61%	0.14	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Grayer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Bobby Hurley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Gamble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	44%	0.00	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	17	43%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	3.5	26.7	17.6	24.1	2.7	39.0	143.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +41.0%

SAC +4.3%

SAC +10.3%

DET -0.1%

DET -5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAC	NBA	DET	SAC	NBA
this game	17.9	16.2	15.6	109.5	114.1	104.4
season	17.1	15.4		107.6	102.4
opponent	15.4	16.2		106.0	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.8	19.6	18.1	18.3	17.9
SAC	15.5	17.4	16.1	16.0	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Litterial Green	13	14	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-3	1	17.5	18.0	-0.50	16.7	16.1	0.60
Jerome Williams	14	15	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-3	1	18.0	17.9	0.14	15.9	16.3	-0.34
Theo Ratliff	31	31	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-2	-1	18.5	17.5	1.01	16.2	16.2	-0.03
Michael Curry	78	78	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-6	7	17.6	21.8	-4.26	16.3	15.4	0.85
Terry Mills	52	53	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.37	-2	-3	1	17.7	18.2	-0.50	16.5	15.7	0.84
Lindsey Hunter	72	72	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.37	-3	-2	-1	17.8	18.2	-0.43	15.9	18.0	-2.11
Otis Thorpe	83	84	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	18.0	8.0	10.00	16.4	0.0	16.40
Grant Hill	77	78	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.32	-9	4	-13	18.0	16.1	1.90	16.0	18.7	-2.73

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Smith	75	74	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.34	9	-4	13	16.0	17.5	-1.46	17.4	21.6	-4.22
Jeff Grayer	26	26	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.36	8	-3	11	15.6	16.5	-0.86	17.2	18.2	-0.94
Mitch Richmond	82	80	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.36	8	-3	11	16.2	15.7	0.57	18.1	13.5	4.60
Olden Polynice	79	78	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.34	8	-3	11	16.4	13.7	2.74	18.2	13.2	5.08
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	79	78	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.37	6	-1	7	15.9	20.5	-4.61	17.7	20.5	-2.82
Kevin Gamble	13	13	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.02	2	3	-1	15.7	16.3	-0.61	18.1	17.8	0.23
Bobby Hurley	7	7	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	6	-7	17.6	16.1	1.48	18.7	17.8	0.91
Duane Causwell	11	11	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.00	-4	9	-13	18.6	15.9	2.79	17.6	17.9	-0.28
Billy Owens	15	14	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.04	-6	11	-17	16.4	16.2	0.23	17.5	18.0	-0.46
Corliss Williamson	38	39	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.01	-5	10	-15	16.3	16.1	0.24	18.5	17.4	1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.59,0.47,0.75,0.72,0.75,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 102, DET 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.54,0.66,0.81,0.72,0.83,0.99,1	93.0%
MIL 81, UTA 84	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.69,0.6,0.47,0.61,0.79,0.95,0.99,1	92.4%
LAL 100, MEM 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.31,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.53,0.71,0.91,0.99,1	91.9%