NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	83		Excitement	3.3 [1096]		MVP	Dee Brown (BOS): +11.4%
Boston Celtics	107		Comeback	1.4 [852]		LVP	Avery Johnson (SAS): -13.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Anderson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.01	-0.07	7	57%	0.08	3	-0.07	9	56%	0.01
Monty Williams	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	87%	0.07	6	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Jason Sasser	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.06	8	69%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	4	58%	-0.02	2	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Devin Gray	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.14	-0.01	-0.12	13	30%	0.00	3	-0.03	1	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Vernon Maxwell	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.13	-0.01	-0.04	19	30%	-0.09	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.16	-0.02	-0.05	9	56%	-0.01	8	-0.12	7	57%	-0.03

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.01	-0.01	6	83%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.15	0.01	0.07	11	83%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Greg Minor	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.03	13	62%	0.08	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	17	47%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	4	67%	0.01	4	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	7	55%	0.02	2	-0.02	6	50%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	41%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Todd Day	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	0.06	13	55%	-0.03	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.8	23.3	15.4	25.4	2.4	26.3	117.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +22.1%

BOS +1.8%

BOS +24.1%

BOS +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	BOS	NBA	SAS	BOS	NBA
this game	17.3	14.5	15.6	92.2	117.6	104.4
season	16.8	14.8		100.8	101.8
opponent	14.7	15.4		109.5	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.0	19.0	17.0	15.6	17.3
BOS	13.3	16.2	13.8	15.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Gray	33	33	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.12	-6	-18	12	16.5	17.8	-1.37	14.9	14.3	0.62
Greg Anderson	24	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.13	2	-26	28	17.1	17.4	-0.27	17.0	13.5	3.42
Cory Alexander	29	28	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.00	-4	-20	16	18.2	16.9	1.25	15.0	14.3	0.75
Jason Sasser	45	45	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.18	-16	-8	-8	16.8	17.8	-1.04	14.4	14.7	-0.32
Monty Williams	58	60	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	-13	2	18.1	16.0	2.10	15.0	13.6	1.37
Carl Herrera	42	41	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.11	-16	-8	-8	17.8	16.9	0.87	12.9	15.8	-2.94
Avery Johnson	61	63	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.20	-20	-4	-16	16.9	18.2	-1.25	14.3	15.0	-0.75
Will Perdue	68	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.32	-25	1	-26	17.2	17.6	-0.36	14.1	15.9	-1.81
Vernon Maxwell	90	91	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.20	-24	0	-24	17.3	0.0	17.32	14.5	0.0	14.52

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Fox	59	59	0.60	-0.10	0.70	-0.31	31	-7	38	13.1	17.1	-3.98	17.9	16.2	1.67
Antoine Walker	75	74	0.56	-0.06	0.61	-0.35	31	-7	38	13.7	18.2	-4.53	17.2	18.0	-0.82
David Wesley	64	63	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.21	21	3	18	14.3	15.0	-0.69	17.5	16.9	0.62
Eric Williams	65	64	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.04	10	14	-4	14.9	13.5	1.42	17.3	17.3	-0.03
Dee Brown	56	54	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	17	-10	14.4	14.8	-0.41	16.7	18.2	-1.55
Greg Minor	53	54	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.17	15	9	6	14.6	14.4	0.25	17.3	17.4	-0.16
Marty Conlon	39	40	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	22	-20	16.4	13.1	3.36	17.8	17.0	0.81
Todd Day	44	42	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.10	3	21	-18	15.8	13.3	2.52	17.0	17.6	-0.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.65,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.67,0.78,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 99, ORL 120	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.83,0.9,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
MIA 89, IND 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.8,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
PHX 83, DAL 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%