NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	84		Excitement	3.2 [1115]		MVP	Mitch Richmond (SAC): +11.5%
Sacramento Kings	91		Comeback	1.0 [1015]		LVP	Brian Shaw (ORL): -10.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Schayes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amal McCaskill	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	0.06	0.01	0.08	11	77%	0.04	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	0.00	0.04	14	46%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	15	45%	-0.01	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
David Vaughn	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Horace Grant	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.02	10	43%	-0.05	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Derek Strong	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	16	42%	-0.04	3	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.10	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.00	-0.01	16	39%	-0.05	4	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.00	-0.01	14	69%	0.12	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Tyus Edney	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	11	64%	0.03	2	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	6	42%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.09	0.00	-0.08	10	41%	0.03	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	15	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Lionel Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	7	44%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	7	25%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02
Billy Owens	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	10	40%	-0.03	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.4	23.3	15.6	23.3	2.7	27.2	115.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +36.5%

ORL -1.4%

SAC +4.4%

SAC +9.9%

SAC +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAC	NBA	ORL	SAC	NBA
this game	17.4	13.1	15.6	89.4	95.8	104.4
season	16.4	15.4		102.9	102.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		106.0	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.1	22.0	17.0	14.2	17.4
SAC	12.9	11.8	12.4	15.2	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amal McCaskill	4	3	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-8	9	19.0	17.3	1.68	9.0	13.2	-4.24
Dan Schayes	15	15	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.07	1	-8	9	15.4	17.8	-2.37	18.5	12.1	6.37
David Vaughn	22	23	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	-5	3	20.4	16.5	3.88	11.7	13.6	-1.92
Rony Seikaly	69	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-4	1	16.8	19.0	-2.19	11.9	16.3	-4.46
Gerald Wilkins	72	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.29	-1	-6	5	16.6	20.0	-3.46	12.5	15.2	-2.74
Darrell Armstrong	61	61	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.29	-1	-6	5	18.0	16.2	1.87	12.7	13.9	-1.26
Horace Grant	81	83	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.23	-6	-1	-5	17.5	16.8	0.64	12.8	15.2	-2.45
Brian Shaw	73	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-2	-3	17.0	18.9	-1.88	14.0	10.0	3.93
Derek Strong	73	73	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	0.02	-19	12	-31	17.9	15.5	2.47	14.2	9.3	4.93

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Olden Polynice	73	73	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.14	8	-1	9	13.6	11.5	2.15	16.7	19.9	-3.17
Mitch Richmond	70	69	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.21	5	2	3	12.0	16.3	-4.31	17.2	17.9	-0.66
Corliss Williamson	52	50	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	0	7	12.5	13.9	-1.42	19.3	15.3	3.99
Billy Owens	63	63	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.22	3	4	-1	13.0	13.3	-0.27	16.8	18.6	-1.77
Michael Smith	74	75	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.35	-2	9	-11	14.2	9.4	4.78	16.3	21.6	-5.25
Tyus Edney	62	61	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	4	-1	12.2	14.8	-2.53	16.7	18.6	-1.87
Lionel Simmons	34	33	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	3	1	14.3	12.4	1.90	18.6	16.7	1.87
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	33	33	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	3	1	14.8	12.2	2.53	18.6	16.7	1.87
Duane Causwell	14	13	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.04	3	4	-1	10.4	13.6	-3.14	21.0	16.8	4.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 79, POR 94	0.5,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.64,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.1%
LAC 90, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1	96.8%
MEM 84, LAC 110	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%