NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Bullets	95		Excitement	7.7 [299]		MVP	Chris Whitney (WAS): +8.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	90		Comeback	15.9 [41]		LVP	Vin Baker (MIL): -43.7%

Washington Bullets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Whitney	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	5	70%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	80%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Harvey Grant	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy Murray	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gheorghe Muresan	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	56%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Chris Webber	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	16	50%	-0.01	3	-0.09	8	25%	-0.10
Rod Strickland	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	0.00	14	44%	-0.04	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.16	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.3,-0.16	-0.03	-0.12	0.01	23	46%	-0.07	1	-0.08	4	75%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	12	52%	0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.1,0,0,0	-0.00	0.09	-0.06	0.04	21	69%	0.19	4	-0.20	6	83%	0.00
Joe Wolf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	83%	0.08	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Keith Tower	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	11	32%	-0.10	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.31,-0.37,-0.44,-0.44,-0.44	-0.44	-0.21	-0.24	-0.01	20	35%	-0.32	4	-0.12	8	62%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.4	25.4	15.5	21.3	1.7	32.0	121.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +9.1%

WAS +4.5%

WAS +6.9%

WAS +31.4%

MIL -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIL	NBA	WAS	MIL	NBA
this game	14.9	15.9	15.6	101.1	96.8	104.4
season	14.8	16.0		104.3	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.8		106.0	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.9	13.7	17.7	13.7	14.9
MIL	15.1	15.1	15.8	17.6	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Bullets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gheorghe Muresan	46	45	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.41	8	-3	11	15.1	14.8	0.34	17.4	14.4	2.96
Chris Webber	81	79	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.40	5	0	5	14.8	15.6	-0.79	15.7	17.1	-1.41
Calbert Cheaney	59	59	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.29	0	5	-5	14.7	15.4	-0.74	16.3	15.1	1.19
Chris Whitney	25	24	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.08	6	-1	7	15.7	14.7	1.01	15.0	16.2	-1.23
Rod Strickland	69	69	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.27	-1	6	-7	14.7	15.7	-1.01	16.2	15.0	1.23
Jaren Jackson	35	34	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.07	5	0	5	15.4	14.7	0.74	15.1	16.3	-1.19
Juwan Howard	78	78	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.23	-1	6	-7	14.9	15.1	-0.23	16.2	14.3	1.91
Tracy Murray	30	30	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.01	6	-1	7	15.3	14.8	0.49	15.7	15.9	-0.20
Harvey Grant	47	47	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	8	-11	14.8	15.1	-0.26	14.3	17.4	-3.09

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Wolf	10	9	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.03	2	-7	9	13.8	16.1	-2.32	10.4	15.4	-4.97
Ray Allen	30	30	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.06	-1	-4	3	16.4	15.6	0.78	15.2	14.8	0.39
Keith Tower	27	27	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.10	-3	-2	-1	15.7	15.9	-0.24	15.4	14.7	0.66
Elliot Perry	30	30	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.06	-1	-4	3	14.4	16.6	-2.12	13.6	15.6	-2.01
Armen Gilliam	78	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	-4	3	15.9	15.7	0.16	15.0	14.7	0.24
Sherman Douglas	63	64	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-1	-3	16.6	14.4	2.12	15.6	13.6	2.01
Glenn Robinson	85	85	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	0	-5	15.8	16.5	-0.69	15.0	14.7	0.30
Johnny Newman	71	73	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.43	-4	-1	-3	15.7	16.4	-0.65	14.8	15.4	-0.63
Vin Baker	71	73	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.48	-8	3	-11	16.2	14.8	1.38	15.3	13.8	1.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.74,0.68,0.76,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.89,0.77,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 106, BOS 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.63,0.72,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.74,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.64,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.72,0.57,0.43,0	91.5%
IND 104, CHA 101	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.55,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.58,0.74,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.57,0.16,0	90.7%
MIL 91, TOR 86	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.79,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.64,0.53,0.71,0.62,0.45,0.57,0.28,0	90.6%