NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	91		Excitement	7.7 [282]		MVP	Rex Walters (PHI): +24.8%
Miami Heat	89		Comeback	23.1 [28]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -33.7%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rex Walters	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.25	0.03	0.24	0.02	9	70%	0.36	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Scott Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Cage	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	4	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.11,-0.15,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	0.01	-0.04	20	57%	0.15	7	-0.19	18	78%	0.03
Lucious Harris	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Coleman	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	12	61%	0.02	4	-0.11	9	67%	-0.03
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.22	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.14	-0.07	0.01	10	23%	-0.17	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Danilovic	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.08	-0.04	15	56%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Gary Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.00	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Kurt Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	6	37%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	22	48%	-0.04	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Dan Majerle	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,-0.16	-0.16	0.02	-0.17	0.01	17	54%	-0.11	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.34	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.01	6	56%	0.04	8	-0.38	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.7	29.1	14.8	28.2	2.5	29.6	133.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +55.4%

PHI +8.8%

MIA -27.6%

PHI +13.0%

PHI +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	15.9	15.2	15.6	98.9	95.7	104.4
season	14.7	15.8		101.4	103.1
opponent	16.3	14.7		98.3	108.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	14.3	15.1	15.9	18.9	15.9
MIA	15.7	14.9	12.9	18.0	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Coleman	78	79	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.48	5	-3	8	15.4	19.0	-3.64	14.8	17.8	-3.01
Michael Cage	64	64	0.60	-0.09	0.69	0.42	6	-4	10	16.0	15.7	0.23	15.4	14.9	0.48
Jerry Stackhouse	81	83	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.39	7	-5	12	16.2	13.6	2.59	15.6	12.0	3.61
Rex Walters	65	65	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.50	0	2	-2	16.6	14.2	2.45	15.3	15.1	0.12
Clar. Weatherspoon	85	86	0.37	0.14	0.22	0.48	-4	6	-10	16.0	15.3	0.68	15.2	15.4	-0.22
Lucious Harris	32	32	-0.01	0.52	-0.53	-0.04	1	1	0	14.7	16.6	-1.93	15.9	14.9	1.04
Mark Davis	27	27	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	3	-4	16.2	15.8	0.39	14.5	15.5	-1.00
Scott Williams	28	29	-0.09	0.60	-0.69	0.03	-4	6	-10	15.7	16.0	-0.23	14.9	15.4	-0.48

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ike Austin	52	52	0.61	-1.12	1.73	0.11	17	-19	36	14.8	15.8	-0.99	16.2	15.5	0.78
Keith Askins	32	31	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.14	-1	-1	0	15.8	14.9	0.94	14.8	16.5	-1.67
P.J. Brown	37	36	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.01	-5	3	-8	15.4	15.1	0.25	13.6	17.4	-3.87
Tim Hardaway	78	78	-0.20	-0.31	0.10	-0.46	9	-11	20	15.7	12.5	3.21	16.4	13.2	3.18
Gary Grant	15	14	-0.31	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	9	-20	12.5	15.7	-3.21	13.2	16.4	-3.18
Dan Majerle	76	76	-0.34	-0.17	-0.17	-0.49	5	-7	12	15.4	14.4	1.00	16.5	13.0	3.53
Kurt Thomas	50	50	-0.66	0.15	-0.81	-0.48	-6	4	-10	15.2	15.3	-0.10	16.5	15.2	1.37
Sasha Danilovic	77	76	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.59	-4	2	-6	14.7	17.9	-3.20	15.9	15.9	0.05
Alonzo Mourning	48	47	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.47	-14	12	-26	15.8	14.6	1.21	16.4	15.4	1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.41,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.69,0.79,0.86,0.87,0.74,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.81,0.89,0.95,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.63,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 88, BOS 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.88,0.79,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.89,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.74,0	91.6%
CHH 86, CHI 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.64,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.72,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.85,0.84,0.74,0	90.9%
MIA 95, WAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.81,0.91,0.86,0.9,0.93,0.83,0	90.5%