NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	71		Excitement	3.2 [1105]		MVP	Toni Kukoc (CHI): +11.3%
Chicago Bulls	103		Comeback	1.2 [948]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -15.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Askins	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	4	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Grant	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Danilovic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	-0.00	-0.06	10	45%	0.03	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	6	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	60%	0.01	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Kurt Thomas	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	-0.01	-0.05	3	12%	-0.05	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	10	32%	-0.08	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.01	0.05	16	47%	-0.10	2	-0.05	11	55%	-0.06

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.15	0.00	0.04	14	81%	0.13	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	5	83%	0.05	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Randy Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Longley	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	7	44%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	0.01
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	2	90%	0.00	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bill Wennington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Harper	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Rodman	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	-0.00
Scottie Pippen	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	14	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Michael Jordan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	0.01	0.01	23	45%	-0.09	0	0.00	16	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.0	27.1	15.7	27.2	1.8	27.0	127.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +6.2%

CHI +16.2%

CHI +14.4%

CHI +13.9%

MIA -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	14.6	16.2	15.6	76.3	109.6	104.4
season	15.8	15.5		103.1	110.5
opponent	16.1	16.3		99.8	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.8	15.0	15.7	14.2	14.6
CHI	17.5	18.5	15.6	13.5	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Strickland	11	10	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.26	-9	-23	14	12.8	14.9	-2.06	13.6	16.5	-2.86
Keith Askins	31	32	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-27	22	14.9	14.5	0.45	14.6	17.0	-2.42
Ike Austin	39	38	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.41	-19	-13	-6	15.1	14.3	0.81	13.3	18.1	-4.82
Kurt Thomas	33	35	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.08	-8	-24	16	15.2	14.3	0.94	15.7	16.4	-0.66
Voshon Lenard	31	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.39	-19	-13	-6	14.1	14.9	-0.85	15.0	16.7	-1.73
Dan Majerle	42	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.07	-9	-23	14	14.5	14.7	-0.25	17.5	15.0	2.43
Gary Grant	33	31	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.52	-26	-6	-20	14.3	14.8	-0.51	16.1	16.2	-0.05
Tim Hardaway	64	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.03	-10	-22	12	15.1	13.6	1.57	16.5	15.4	1.09
P.J. Brown	49	51	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.10	-15	-17	2	14.2	15.1	-0.91	16.5	15.8	0.68
Alonzo Mourning	64	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	-21	10	14.7	14.4	0.32	17.6	12.8	4.81
Sasha Danilovic	68	68	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.41	-29	-3	-26	14.5	15.0	-0.55	16.9	14.3	2.51

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dennis Rodman	59	57	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.26	26	6	20	17.1	14.6	2.53	14.8	14.4	0.40
Luc Longley	44	42	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.06	18	14	4	17.1	15.3	1.84	15.3	14.1	1.19
Steve Kerr	52	52	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.51	30	2	28	15.6	16.8	-1.22	14.5	14.8	-0.22
Toni Kukoc	59	58	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.39	25	7	18	16.9	14.8	2.12	14.7	14.5	0.24
Scottie Pippen	72	71	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.09	14	18	-4	16.4	15.5	0.86	14.7	14.5	0.12
Ron Harper	40	39	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.15	15	17	-2	17.5	15.2	2.29	15.4	14.1	1.25
Michael Jordan	66	64	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.12	5	27	-22	16.1	16.2	-0.08	14.5	15.0	-0.48
Randy Brown	28	28	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.26	11	21	-10	14.0	17.1	-3.13	14.6	14.6	0.01
Jason Caffey	17	19	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.31	10	22	-12	13.8	16.7	-2.85	14.3	14.7	-0.47
Jud Buechler	18	19	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.31	9	23	-14	13.4	16.8	-3.43	13.1	15.0	-1.99
Bill Wennington	15	16	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.03	-3	35	-38	14.1	16.6	-2.49	13.4	14.9	-1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.82,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 98, DAL 124	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.84,0.8,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
MIL 82, DET 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
ATL 89, PHI 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%