NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	106		Excitement	5.7 [638]		MVP	Michael Jordan (CHI): +21.3%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	4.7 [150]		LVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): -16.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Jordan	0.21	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.19	0.05	0.03	33	62%	0.21	0	0.00	14	93%	0.04
Ron Harper	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	59%	0.07	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00
Bill Wennington	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Longley	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	62%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Toni Kukoc	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	9	52%	0.04	4	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Scottie Pippen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	17	45%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Steve Kerr	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	43%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dennis Rodman	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.11	-0.01	-0.04	3	20%	-0.03	2	-0.05	4	50%	0.01
Randy Brown	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sasha Danilovic	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	-0.00	-0.00	7	94%	0.12	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	5	60%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.03	0.03	21	59%	0.02	1	-0.04	14	64%	-0.03
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	6	56%	-0.04	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Gary Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	0.03	15	51%	-0.02	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Dan Majerle	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.06	0.01	14	29%	-0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.4	28.3	18.5	25.4	1.8	41.0	144.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +21.4%

CHI +6.3%

CHI +16.1%

CHI +5.3%

CHI +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	16.6	14.0	15.6	112.8	106.4	104.4
season	15.5	15.8		110.5	103.1
opponent	16.3	16.1		98.3	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	20.3	14.5	16.5	15.5	16.6
MIA	13.0	14.8	15.5	12.6	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dennis Rodman	78	79	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.21	16	-10	26	17.4	12.6	4.82	14.3	12.5	1.84
Michael Jordan	79	78	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.29	9	-3	12	16.8	15.5	1.38	13.5	16.7	-3.23
Scottie Pippen	86	87	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.25	10	-4	14	16.3	20.0	-3.69	13.8	16.9	-3.08
Ron Harper	57	54	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.22	9	-3	12	16.0	17.6	-1.68	13.3	14.9	-1.59
Luc Longley	58	58	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.24	0	6	-6	16.9	16.2	0.70	14.2	13.7	0.56
Steve Kerr	32	34	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	2	2	13.9	18.0	-4.13	14.4	13.8	0.63
Toni Kukoc	55	55	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.20	-6	12	-18	16.2	17.2	-0.99	14.1	13.9	0.19
Bill Wennington	6	6	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.03	-1	7	-8	17.8	16.5	1.29	16.8	13.8	3.02
Jud Buechler	2	1	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	9	-12	26.5	16.4	10.09	17.0	14.0	3.02
Randy Brown	17	18	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.07	-8	14	-22	19.6	16.0	3.61	15.4	13.7	1.77

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Grant	17	18	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.12	8	-14	22	16.0	13.6	2.43	18.1	16.3	1.77
Ike Austin	10	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.05	-2	-4	2	15.1	13.9	1.22	18.0	16.5	1.54
P.J. Brown	47	49	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.21	6	-12	18	15.6	12.4	3.13	16.8	16.4	0.35
Voshon Lenard	24	25	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.22	6	-12	18	13.7	14.1	-0.46	14.0	17.6	-3.58
Keith Askins	17	17	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-3	0	14.8	13.8	0.92	15.4	16.9	-1.56
Sasha Danilovic	56	54	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.20	-4	-2	-2	13.2	15.1	-1.88	18.0	14.7	3.27
Dan Majerle	85	84	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	-3	0	13.9	15.2	-1.34	16.5	17.8	-1.31
Alonzo Mourning	81	81	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.40	-1	-5	4	13.7	15.9	-2.22	16.7	16.1	0.64
Kurt Thomas	55	54	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.05	-21	15	-36	13.7	14.5	-0.81	16.6	16.7	-0.08
Tim Hardaway	78	78	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.20	-16	10	-26	13.7	15.6	-1.95	16.3	18.4	-2.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.67,0.61,0.56,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.13,0.16,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.17,0.19,0.09,0.14,0.08,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 114, CHH 93	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.76,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.18,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.04,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.3%
DAL 117, SAC 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.12,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.29,0.13,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.4%
ATL 94, DET 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.69,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.3%