NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	117		Excitement	8.9 [156]		MVP	Gary Trent Jr. (TOR): +30.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	111		Comeback	2.7 [59]		LVP	Ochai Agbaji (TOR): -20.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Trent Jr.	0.30	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.17	0.13	-0.00	22	67%	0.36	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Gradey Dick	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.05	0.00	7	71%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
RJ Barrett	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08	-0.00	0.08	-0.00	18	55%	0.22	5	-0.14	11	82%	0.02
Immanuel Quickley	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.06,0.08	0.12	-0.03	0.02	12	64%	0.10	1	-0.02	15	93%	0.07
Kelly Olynyk	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	2	-0.04	6	83%	-0.00
Malik Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen McDaniels	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Nwora	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Javon Freeman-Liberty	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ochai Agbaji	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.08	-0.13	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	4	-0.21	2	50%	-0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	16	62%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	12	56%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Andre Jackson Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
AJ Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.06,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.04	-0.03	18	50%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Damian Lillard	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.09,0.08,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	24	58%	0.27	7	-0.28	14	86%	0.02
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	6	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	7	21%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	1.8	26.6	15.3	35.6	2.3	37.4	140.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +33.1%

TOR +10.2%

TOR +8.9%

MIL -11.4%

TOR +9.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	13.5	14.1	14.5	113.6	104.7	113.9
season	14.0	14.3		111.3	117.0
opponent	14.3	14.7		114.8	117.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.1	12.4	14.0	14.6	13.5
MIL	15.1	13.8	13.7	13.7	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ochai Agbaji	77	77	0.83	-0.34	1.17	0.25	20	-14	34	12.3	16.9	-4.59	15.1	11.3	3.83
Kelly Olynyk	71	74	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.27	19	-13	32	12.5	15.8	-3.36	15.0	11.8	3.17
Immanuel Quickley	78	81	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.24	14	-8	22	12.7	15.8	-3.10	14.3	13.3	1.02
Gary Trent Jr.	79	83	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.26	11	-5	16	12.5	16.8	-4.30	14.4	12.9	1.52
RJ Barrett	75	78	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	5	-4	13.7	13.0	0.63	13.8	14.8	-1.04
Gradey Dick	55	57	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	9	-12	14.7	12.2	2.49	13.1	15.2	-2.13
Malik Williams	4	4	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	10	-14	16.5	13.4	3.13	12.0	14.1	-2.14
Javon Freeman-Liberty	25	25	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.09	-8	14	-22	15.8	12.7	3.10	13.3	14.3	-1.02
Jalen McDaniels	28	28	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.03	-9	15	-24	15.7	12.7	3.05	11.8	14.9	-3.04
Jordan Nwora	23	23	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.07	-11	17	-28	17.5	12.3	5.13	12.7	14.4	-1.68

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danilo Gallinari	13	14	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-8	10	13.8	14.1	-0.24	14.2	13.4	0.83
Bobby Portis	61	59	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.30	10	-16	26	12.4	16.2	-3.80	15.2	11.3	3.88
Andre Jackson Jr.	33	33	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.34	10	-16	26	12.9	14.6	-1.71	16.2	12.2	3.95
Pat Connaughton	71	71	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.34	9	-15	24	13.6	14.9	-1.32	14.3	11.8	2.44
AJ Green	48	46	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.12	1	-7	8	13.9	14.2	-0.29	14.4	12.8	1.62
Jae Crowder	43	41	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	7	-20	14.7	13.6	1.08	11.5	14.8	-3.38
Malik Beasley	57	54	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.08	-12	6	-18	14.3	13.8	0.45	11.8	15.3	-3.49
Damian Lillard	84	81	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.20	-10	4	-14	14.3	13.0	1.39	13.3	14.4	-1.10
Brook Lopez	45	44	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.03	-16	10	-26	16.2	12.4	3.80	11.3	15.2	-3.88
Khris Middleton	75	72	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.19	-11	5	-16	14.3	13.5	0.76	13.5	13.5	-0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.62,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.56,0.49,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.25,0.3,0.16,0.18,0.25,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 101, CHH 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.66,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.3,0.35,0.23,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.45,0.45,0.33,0.15,0	91.8%
LAC 95, NOP 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.23,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.25,0.46,0.33,0.15,0	91.6%
DET 94, GSW 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.19,0.3,0.23,0.16,0.08,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.25,0.29,0.16,0.04,0	91.3%