NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	106		Excitement	8.3 [235]		MVP	P.J. Washington (DAL): +42.6%
Dallas Mavericks	108		Comeback	1.4 [554]		LVP	Draymond Green (GSW): -17.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.1,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.22	0.06	0.17	0.00	23	54%	0.28	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Gary Payton II	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.04	0.00	7	93%	0.17	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Moses Moody	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	8	47%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Brandin Podziemski	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.01	11	64%	0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.06	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Kevon Looney	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	3	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Trayce Jackson-Davis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	8	40%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Klay Thompson	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12	-0.02	-0.10	0.00	17	47%	-0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	9	33%	-0.03	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.43	0.43	0.18	0.27	0.03	18	78%	0.57	4	-0.14	5	60%	-0.06
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.07	-0.01	19	59%	0.22	5	-0.12	6	100%	0.04
Jaden Hardy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	5	50%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dante Exum	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	8	69%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	62%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	13	43%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
A.J. Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.06	-0.02	11	37%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	1.7	25.6	14.7	30.1	2.5	37.6	140.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +30.5%

DAL +13.9%

DAL +8.5%

GSW -2.8%

GSW -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DAL	NBA	GSW	DAL	NBA
this game	14.4	13.4	14.5	101.9	104.9	113.9
season	14.3	14.2		116.2	116.2
opponent	14.4	14.4		114.1	114.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.7	15.0	16.0	13.0	14.4
DAL	12.5	14.3	12.2	14.7	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevon Looney	23	21	0.23	-0.73	0.95	-0.15	13	-15	28	14.6	14.4	0.24	13.2	13.4	-0.20
Gary Payton II	54	52	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.31	14	-16	30	12.5	16.5	-3.96	14.7	12.1	2.65
Chris Paul	65	66	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.63	22	-24	46	14.0	15.1	-1.09	14.2	12.0	2.14
Stephen Curry	76	74	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	3	-8	14.8	13.4	1.46	13.2	13.9	-0.69
Klay Thompson	70	72	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.38	5	-7	12	14.6	14.0	0.67	13.6	13.0	0.62
Brandin Podziemski	55	54	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.39	-1	-1	0	14.3	14.6	-0.32	13.4	13.3	0.10
Moses Moody	58	56	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.14	-23	21	-44	15.7	12.9	2.79	12.3	14.7	-2.40
Draymond Green	76	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.29	-9	7	-16	14.1	15.3	-1.18	13.7	12.6	1.04
Trayce Jackson-Davis	43	44	-0.96	0.46	-1.43	-0.20	-26	24	-50	15.4	13.8	1.62	11.7	14.7	-3.04

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Washington	86	88	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.36	8	-6	14	13.4	13.2	0.27	14.4	14.7	-0.39
Dante Exum	71	72	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.24	9	-7	16	13.6	13.0	0.53	14.1	15.1	-0.92
Derrick Jones Jr.	75	76	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.25	7	-5	12	12.9	14.6	-1.66	15.4	11.7	3.76
Kyrie Irving	91	92	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.41	1	1	0	13.7	11.4	2.24	14.0	17.6	-3.57
Tim Hardaway Jr.	66	66	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.60	-9	11	-20	13.1	14.0	-0.90	13.9	15.3	-1.32
Daniel Gafford	67	66	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.06	8	-6	14	13.1	14.0	-0.88	15.6	12.3	3.32
A.J. Lawson	10	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	3	-4	17.3	13.0	4.32	15.8	14.3	1.52
Jaden Hardy	30	30	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.20	-8	10	-18	13.2	13.5	-0.23	13.5	14.8	-1.25
Dwight Powell	19	20	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.09	-5	7	-12	13.5	13.4	0.16	12.0	15.0	-3.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.77,0.7,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.45,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.67,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.92,0.87,0.97,0.89,0.91,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 85, HOU 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.65,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.8,0.87,0.93,0.9,0.97,1,1	93.6%
CHA 77, ORL 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.67,0.59,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.48,0.59,0.69,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.97,0.93,0.99,0.98,1,1	93.4%
HOU 96, TOR 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.62,0.53,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.81,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.93,0.97,0.87,0.96,1	93.2%